‘The Difficult Ally:’ What Does the US Expect from Re-elected Erdogan?

Thus, the thinktanks mostly believe in a continuation of traditional “transactional” relations with Turkey, which in its turn might refrain from further serious deterioration of relations with Western allies in the hope of getting the desired finances to save the Turkish economy. At the same time, Turkey will continue developing relations with major powers, including the USA’s rivals, such as Russia and China, to its own benefit, which will inevitably create problems in US-Turkish relations.

As for the reaction of the US media to Erdogan’s reelection, a few arguments are to be highlighted.

The first argument is that Erdogan’s reelection will consolidate autocracy in Turkey. According to the US mass media, Erdogan had utilized all of the state’s resources, making use of its control over the media and the favorable electoral laws. Erdogan’s reelection is deemed as  victory of “the global club of autocracies.” Moreover, another five years of Erdogan’s rule will “further hollow out institutions and entrench authoritarian political habits in the country’s psyche.”

Other sources point out that with his victory Erdogan extended “his increasingly authoritarian rule.” Erdogan is expected to introduce a new constitution to include and secure all the changes overseen by his conservative and religious Justice and Development Party. Second, Turkey will continue to deepen its ties with Russia moving away from the orbit of the West.

The US media is also worried about the anti-western stance of Turkey. Erdogan has repeatedly claimed that the United States endorsed his political rival during these elections, while his political opponent Kilicdaroglu in his turn blamed Russia for interfering into the elections. Moreover, in his Twitter blog he made a post in Russian urging Russia not to interfere in Turkish elections. Erdogan is continuously moving away from the transatlantic orb, building closer ties with Russia. To relieve Turkish economic problems Erdogan managed to receive financial support from Russia, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Empires and Qatar in the form of central bank loans, which allowed Erdogan to raise salaries ahead of the elections.

The US media specifically highlighted the fact that Erdogan’s reelection was followed by a wave of congratulations from a number of autocracies, which were among the first to congratulate him. Those countries included Russia, Qatar, Libya, Algeria, Hungary, Iran and the Palestinian Authority. However, Russia was central and specific attention was given to Vladimir Putin’s congratulatory statement, which said that the elections were “clear evidence of the Turkish people’s support” for Erdogan’s efforts “to strengthen state sovereignty and pursue an independent foreign policy.” According to the US news agencies, even though Turkey is a NATO ally, the country established closer ties with Russia and deepened authoritarian rule. Hence this policy will have consequences outside Turkey, which in its turn has a  strategically important position between the crossroads of Europe and Asia.

Last but not least, US media stressed that with Erdogan’s reelection Turkey will continue expanding its geopolitical role taking advantage of West-Russia confrontation.

According to various US media, despite all the challenges, Erdogan had one advantage during this presidential elections – “his deft geopolitical maneuvering in which he has expanded Turkey’s influence in the region, especially the broader power conflict between Russia and the West.” Moreover, Erdogan is said to have improved Turkey’s positions, becoming an important world leader by facilitating peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Erdogan managed to sell weapons to Kyiv while expanding economic ties with Moscow. As for the relations with Western allies, Erdogan is using its leverage over them, such as in holding up Sweden’s accession to NATO.

The US is well-aware that Erdogan manages to establish close ties with adversaries of the United States, particularly with Russia and China, despite being a NATO ally. Turkey serves its interests by interfering in the balance between the two poles. Erdogan manages to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while at the same time refusing to impose sanctions on Russia. Instead, Turkish trade relations with Moscow are expanding. He calls Vladimir Putin “my friend” and prevents NATO expansion efforts by not allowing Sweden to join NATO.

By and large, judging from the reactions of the state officials, press and thinktanks, clear conclusions can be drawn about the US approach to the elections held in Turkey and the re-election of Erdogan. It is obvious that the United States is not particularly excited about Erdogan’s victory but will have to continue to cooperate with Erdogan and his political team, having both common interests and deep controversies.