The Nuclear Option

As a result, the Soviet Union eventually collapsed and President Reagan rightfully bragged “we destroyed the Soviet Empire without firing a single shot.” Of course, other domestic factors also contributed to the implosion of that empire.

But in the meantime, the US got more than what it had bargained for. China developed into a major economic powerhouse, which fueled its military might.

On the one hand, Washington will try to challenge China, which has staked a claim in the economies of Africa and South America, while Turkey will be tasked with dealing with Russia. Mr. Erdogan’s plans to dominate Central Asia, the space between China and Russia, matches perfectly the US’s geostrategic goals. Turkey has already weaponized religion as an extension of its military hardware. It has been threatening to weaken Russia by mobilizing its 25 million Muslims and has been agitating the Uyghurs, in China’s Xinxiang Province. (There is little doubt that China is wreaking havoc on that minority but Turkey is making sure to insert itself in that issue as a voice of compassion.)

As the facts are sorted out in the Tavush region of Armenia, where Azerbaijan attacked Armenia starting July 12, it looks more and more as if the incident was stage managed by Turkey.

For almost 30 years, the Karabakh conflict was considered a regional issue, which called for a local solution between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But with the advent of Erdogan’s imperial plans, it has become a component of a larger international problem.

As analysts have discovered in Armenia, Erdogan needs Karabakh more than Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev does. It is an excuse for Turkey to face Armenia and that falls perfectly in line with the goals Turkey has been pursuing.

After suffering a debacle in Tavush, Azerbaijan dispatched a military delegation to Turkey to discuss the conflict with the leadership there. Turkey’s National Security Council held a meeting chaired by President Erdogan, and came up with a stern warning to Armenia: “We condemn Armenia’s aggression against Azerbaijan, whose territories it has occupied illegally, disturbing peace and trampling international norms.”

What was more alarming, however, was Erdogan’s personal threat to Armenia: “This is not a border skirmish but it is an aggression on the very territory of Azerbaijan. Armenia has landed a punch beyond its capacity. We will defend our friend and brother, Azerbaijan. We will bring to its conclusion our mission in the Caucasus, left as a legacy to us from our forefathers.”

Earlier, Turkey’s Minister of Defense Hulusi Akar had warned, “Azerbaijani blood will not be left unavenged.”

Following these warnings, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defense announced on July 27 that joint military exercises will take place with Turkish forces July 29 through August 10. This is an initiative to intimidate Armenia, after Turkey’s verbal warnings.

There is a serious debate in Armenia whether Turkey can and will invade Armenia. Lillit Makunts, a member of parliament, and Turkologist Ruben Melkonyan, believe Turkey will not dare attack Armenia for two reasons: the international community still remembers Turkey’s genocidal acts against Armenians and second, the Russian military base in Gyumri will serve as a deterrent.

However, Gen. Vagharshak Harutyunyan, the former minister of defense, insists that “Ankara has already crossed the Rubicon and it is in the game.”

Erdogan is in the same headspace that Hitler was in the 1930s when he became the revanchist leader to avenge Germany’s humiliation in the wake of World War I. That scenario was enacted in Istanbul during the ceremony converting the Hagia Sophia back into a mosque, where Erdogan derided Ataturk’s legacy, who had saved the present territory of Turkey from the ruins of the Ottoman Empire, and instead exulted Fatih (“conqueror”) Sultan Mehmet II, who had occupied Constantinople in 1453. On that day, Erdogan assumed the conqueror’s mantle as he is set to rebuild his empire.

After striking a punishing blow to Azerbaijan’s forces, Armenians are in a state of euphoria. During that confrontation, Armenia’s armed forces proved their superiority not only on the battlefield, but also in their innovations in military hardware, which brought down 13 Azeri drones, including one from Israel, which had been considered invulnerable.

But the war is closing in on Armenia’s borders; Turkish forces are both in Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan. Armenia should compound its military ingenuity with corresponding diplomacy. This is no time for anti-Russian rhetoric, as Russia remains our strategic partner.

Turkey has alienated a number of countries, creating a niche for international diplomacy for Armenia. Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, Israel and Armenia have a common interest in forming a coalition to confront Turkey. Of course, Turkey and Israel are strategic competitors in Azerbaijan, working at cross-purposes. Even Saudi Arabia could find interest in the above proposed coalition, as it considers Turkey a competitor in the leadership of Sunni Muslims.

In terms of military prowess, Armenia must think also about the unthinkable as a nation, which has experienced genocide and has the right to deter another. Erdogan’s intention is to complete the grizzly task “his forefathers” have left unfinished.

Along this line of thought, prominent political analyst Hagop Badalyan believes that Azerbaijan’s threat to strike the atomic power plant in Armenia allows the latter country to consider the nuclear option.

“We can understand how delicate and complicated the issue is. For many even the idea may sound unthinkable, i.e., that Armenia can become a nuclear power. On the other hand, other nations have had the same hesitation before attaining nuclear forces. However, everything depends on the task ahead, the international situation and other factors.”

Since Armenia’s weapons designers are so ingenious, they have to consider the nuclear option as a deterrent or any other super weapon that can prevent another genocide.

The spent fuel at Metsamor power plant is shipped to Russia for storage. That is the ingredient which may serve to develop a warhead.

Since the attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, no country has used the atomic bomb, instead using it as a deterrent against potential aggression. Even the rogue state of North Korea brought the leader of the US to its doorsteps, because it obtained nuclear arms.

Currently, the following countries are members of the nuclear club, with their corresponding warheads: US (4,435), Russia (4,900), China (290), Pakistan (150-160), India (130-140), North Korea (20-30), and Israel (?), France (300), and Great Britain (215). No one knows how many warheads exist in Israel’s arsenal. Some unconfirmed reports estimate it to be 200. But the country has never asked anyone’s permission to become a nuclear power nor has it allowed inspections by international agencies.

With Turkey’s current aggressive posture and track record, Armenia does not have the luxury of receiving anyone’s consent to stop the next genocide which may be looming on the horizon.