From 2025 to 2026: What Awaits Armenia in a Changing South Caucasus

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By Suren Sargsyan

Special to the Mirror-Spectator

The previous year was quite rich for Armenia in terms of events and developments, as well as opportunities and challenges. First of all, political processes related to Armenia have intensified, especially from the US side, shaping a new situation in the South Caucasus in terms of US involvement. All this means that developments concerning Armenia in 2026 will be unprecedentedly active and dynamic. At the same time, in the final days of last year, answers to several important questions, predictions, and clarifications that I had raised in my various articles emerged almost simultaneously. In particular, it was announced that Turkish Airlines will open flights to Yerevan — an outcome I had predicted in one of my articles published by the Armenian Mirror-Spectator. At the same time, it became clear that Turkey is considering introducing a preferential visa regime for holders of Armenian special passports, and Armenia is preparing to implement a similar measure for Turkish citizens.

It was also announced by Armenian officials that the railway route associated with the so-called “Trump route” cannot be operated by the Russian South Caucasus Railway systems. This was an issue I had previously raised, arguing that such an arrangement would be impractical. Most recently, it was officially confirmed that this railway will not be serviced by Russia.

On December 24, I published information on my Facebook account stating that a very high-ranking American official would visit Armenia, noting that the visit would most likely be aimed at the formal opening of the so-called “Trump route.” I did not disclose a name, but I was aware that, in all likelihood, the visit would be carried out by Vice President Vance. This information spread through the Armenian media space at lightning speed and soon became an undisputed report. Importantly, it also provided an answer to a key question — namely, when the Trump route would be formally opened.

As we can see, the beginning of the coming year will be extremely active for Armenia from the perspective of US policy implementation. Against this backdrop, reports regarding the recall of the US ambassador are of particular interest. It was crucial to understand whether the ambassador would remain in office during the visit of the high-ranking official or whether she would be replaced by a chargé d’affaires ad interim, given that the likelihood of appointing a new ambassador within such a short timeframe is virtually zero.

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I also recalled that the highest-ranking American officials ever to have visited Armenia were the Speaker of the US House of Representatives and the Secretary of State. Among sitting US presidents, only George W. Bush has visited the region — and that visit was to Georgia. As for US vice presidents, the only two to have visited the South Caucasus was Mike Pence during Donald Trump’s first presidency, again traveling to Georgia, as well as Vice President Dick Cheney, who visited Baku and Tbilisi.

It is also noteworthy that in February the United States will not have an ambassador in any South Caucasus country. In all three states, ambassadors will not yet have been appointed for various reasons — an unprecedented situation in itself. Finally, according to the information available to me at this stage, the American official has no plans to visit other regional countries and will limit the trip exclusively to Yerevan.

One thing is clear; in 2026 the South Caucasus and Armenia will continue to remain within the realm of geopolitical competition of global players, but the US will continue gaining momentum. This is largely driven by the relative weakening roles of Russia and Iran — the key players in the South Caucasus — and by the significant increase in the role of Turkey as a strategic ally of the United States and the main beneficiary of the Trump route.

At this stage, it is still difficult to predict exactly how and when the war in Ukraine will end, but it most likely has a chance of concluding within the next three to four months. However, this raises the question of what global arrangements the United States and Russia may ultimately reach, and how those arrangements could affect the South Caucasus.

This also relates to Russia’s potential involvement in the Middle Corridor or the so-called “Trump route,” which could have significant implications for the overall logic and functioning of the Middle Corridor. All of this will clearly remain at the center of our attention in the coming months, and we will seek to assess the realities and develop our own understanding and approaches accordingly.

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