In recent days, dramatic events have been unfolding in Syria. The unexpected collapse of over five decades of al-Assad family rule in Syria within a single day — similar to the situation in Afghanistan — led to the outright disappearance of the Syrian army, signaling the shift in the region’s geopolitical landscape.
Bashar al-Assad’s government was primarily reliant on Russian and Iranian support, the latter even establishing military bases in Syria to exert influence in the Middle East. However, this situation did not last long. The Syrian opposition, supported by Turkey, was unwilling to reconcile with the status quo. At a time when Russia’s resources were insufficient to pursue its interests on multiple fronts, including Ukraine, and when Iran, together with its ally Hezbollah, found itself in a challenging situation due to an indirect conflict with Israel, favorable conditions emerged for the forces supported by Turkey to take power in Syria. The Assad family found political asylum in Moscow after a 13-year civil war and almost six decades of family rule.
These events are crucial for the future of the Middle East, but we must also consider their potential impact on Armenia and the South Caucasus, especially as the same parties are involved in both regions. Turkey has broad geopolitical aspirations. One of its ambitions is to establish the so-called “Zangezur Corridor,” which is a transport route connecting Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan (Nakhijevan) through Armenia’s Syunik Province.
This project has a huge potential to increase Turkey’s influence not only in the South Caucasus but also in the Central Asia and Middle East and to weaken Iran’s positions by limiting Iran’s connection to Europe. With its growing influence in Syria and Russia’s and Iran’s diminishing presence there, Turkey is on its way to achieving many of its regional goals.
This shift in the Middle East aligns with long-standing American interests in Syria. US interests in Syria have long been driven by certain strategic objectives, particularly by countering rival powers like Russia and Iran. In this context we can observe the following picture. For years Russia, the United States’ primary global competitor, was involved in Syria with a military presence to support Assad. But now, Russia’s focus on the war in Ukraine and its subsequent military withdrawals from Syria, reflected American interests, putting it in a more favorable position.
Iran, which is another key US adversary, had also been deeply involved in supporting Assad but reduced its engagement due to its confrontation with Israel.
