Karabakh War: The Efficacy of Diplomacy

Israel’s drones proved to be the most lethal in this conflict. As in past wars in Karabakh, Ukraine shipped armaments to Azerbaijan. Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, a nation already in turmoil, did manage to ship armaments, also making a mockery of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, in which Armenia and Belarus are members.

Georgia hypocritically announced that it was closing its air space to both warring parties. But in this day and age, nothing can be kept secret; Turkey used Georgia’s airspace to supply Azerbaijan with armaments.

To counter the hostility of these unfriendly nations, France and Germany sent parliamentary delegations to Armenia and Karabakh. The only high level diplomat who demonstrated active solidarity was Greece’s Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias, who visited Armenia and later flew to Moscow to discuss the crisis with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov.

France’s Macron was supportive verbally. He also pointed a finger at Turkey for introducing terrorist mercenaries into the battlefield. Later, when he spoke about the murder of the French teacher who had shown his class the cartoon of the Prophet Mohammed, an angry Mr. Erdogan advised the French president to seek mental health. He had also accused Chancellor Merkel of harboring a Nazi mentality. These European statement keep the high ground and refuse to trade insults and barbs with the Sultan.

Although the Armenian diaspora’s activism was able to convince Canada to discontinue the transfer of drone parts to Azerbaijan, that same activism has yet to yield results with the US administration to enforce Article 907 of Freedom Support Act, which bans any transfer of military hardware to Azerbaijan, as long as the latter continues its hostility against Armenia.

Armenian diplomacy has worked well under duress. It was a learning curve for those diplomats to operate under pressure. Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan was all over the globe. He was in Moscow negotiating with Lavrov and then in Washington and Europe, in between giving interviews and lectures.

Armenia’s President Armen Sarkissian was well received at the Elysee Palace in France. Before that, he had visited the NATO headquarters in Brussels, where he met the organization’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, with whom he gave a joint press conference.

After paying lip service to the human casualties, Stoltenberg expressed his appreciation to Armenia for its participation in NATO’s peacekeeping missions in Afghanistan and Kosovo. He added that NATO was not a participant in this war and that Turkey was a respected member that hopefully could use its power to bring peace to the conflict.

We are not sure if Mr. Sarkissian informed his host that Turkey was in the Caucasus to complete its genocidal plans using NATO armaments, like F-16 warplanes to kill civilians.

Mnatsakanyan, Sarkissian and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan made many appearances on major news outlets. In particular, Indian TV’s coverage of the conflict is interesting, especially since their adversary, Pakistan, has sent mercenaries to the conflict to interject in the discourse. However, he was unfamiliar about Indian-Pakistani relations and the similarity of the Kashmir conflict to be able to interject it into the discourse.

Pashinyan was well prepared to present the case in Armenian because his prior attempts to express himself in Russian and English had backfired.

The Arab world is mostly ignored by Armenia’s leadership despite the fact that large Armenian communities live in those countries. With the current polarization in the Muslim world pitting Turkey against Saudi Arabia for leadership of the Sunni world, Armenia would do well to focus on it.

President Sarkissian, however, is mindful of the influence of that part of the world. His extensive interview with the influential Al Ahram newspaper in Egypt was eye opening for the Arab world.

Domestically, there is political solidarity. Even the three former presidents, who have no love lost for each other, have come together to support the war effort. Most of the anti-Russian rhetoric has died down in the media, although some short-sighted politicians and journalists, with an agenda, continue sniping at Russians when Armenia needs the Kremlin’s support.

In his extensive interview with Al Ahram, Sarkissian stated, “President Putin made it clear that Russia is going to respect every treaty Russia has with Armenia, and this is an absolutely clear message.”

Russia is indeed worried at Turkey’s advances in the Caucasus. Turkish and Azerbaijani forces have been approaching Meghri in Armenia’s southern tip, which is a prized piece of territory for Turkey and Azerbaijan, because control of that piece of land will connect Azerbaijan’s mainland with Nakhichevan, and will pave the way for Erdogan’s march to Central Asia.

To everyone’s knowledge, Russia has sent reinforcements to that region and even has lodged some missiles toward the concentrations of mercenaries on Azerbaijani soil.

The West would love for Turkey to engage Russia in the Caucasus where conflagrations are already raging on the latter’s periphery, in Ukraine, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan.

That is why President Putin is treating the region cautiously, not wanting to provoke Erdogan into action, while in the meantime minding his treaty obligations.

Armenian diplomacy can go only so far. Any diplomatic move, if not backed by force, has limited impact. It looks like that diplomacy has run its course and no party in the Minsk Group is anxious to move militarily to impose a ceasefire. The impression is that the co-chairs have been harboring the possibility of Azerbaijan making some inroads and recovering territory so that it can use it as a bargaining chip at the Geneva conference on October 29.

Mr. Lavrov had plainly laid out his plan before the October 10 ceasefire for Armenia to begin implementing the Madrid plan, which calls for the return of five regions held outside Karabakh controlled by Armenia, and then two more, before any discussion is placed on the negotiation table about the status issue.

Armenia had refused the proposal categorically; unfortunately, just recently, army spokesman Artsrun Hovhannissyan conceded that Karabakh has lost the Kubatli region to Azerbaijan. The tug-of-war will continue until the conference date. Hopefully, the Karabakh army will not cede any more territory because, to begin with, those territories outside Karabakh were occupied for security reasons and in this case, as a bargaining chip at the negotiation table.

Armenia has too many enemies and few true friends.

Karabakh President Arayik Harutyunyan has issued a public appeal to President Putin for help.

That call says it all.