Russia Says Azerbaijan, Armenia Agree on Cease-Fire in Nagorno Karabakh

Nagorno Karabakh is recognized internationally as part of Azerbaijan. But it has been under the control of Yerevan-backed ethnic Armenian forces since a 1994 cease-fire brought an end to the separatist war that broke out as the Soviet Union collapsed.

Since then, Nagorno Karabakh has been populated and governed by ethnic Armenians, leaving hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis from the region as internally displaced war refugees for more than a quarter century.

Zaur Shiriyev, a South Caucasus analyst for the International Crisis Group, says there is a “very visible lack of support” from the Azerbaijani population for going back to peace talks in the hope of returning the internally displaced people to their homes in and around Nagorno-Karabakh.

Shiriyev says Azerbaijanis “demand” from Aliyev “not to return to ‘fruitless’ talks, but to continue the war, which finally promises real results.”

“Therefore, the international calls for ceasefire are broadly seen as an attempt to disrupt Baku’s success and do not find support in the Azerbaijani public,” Shiriyev says.

The hostilities — the largest escalation of the decades-old conflict since a shaky cease-fire was reached in 1994 — have increased concern that a wider conflict could drag in regional power Turkey, which is Azerbaijan’s closest ally, and Russia, which has a defense pact with Armenia.