Europe Accused of Going Soft on Azerbaijan to Avoid Buying Russian Gas

The European Union rejects the allegation.

“[The EU] is concerned by the shrinking civic space in [Azerbaijan],” a spokesman told the BBC, and has called on Baku “to release all those arbitrarily detained for exercising their fundamental rights.”

“The EU has consistently raised its concerns at all levels, both in public and in private,” including during Kaja Kallas’s visit to Baku, he added.

The EU wants to diversify where it gets its gas, to avoid being dependent on a single supplier such as Russia.

Azerbaijan is far from being the biggest player, as its overall share in EU natural gas imports remains a modest 4.3%, despite an uptick in supplies.

But the share is much higher in some member states connected to the Southern Gas Corridor pipeline from Azerbaijan. Up to 40% of Bulgarian natural gas imports come from Azerbaijan, and for Italy and Greece it is 15%.

This makes it difficult for the EU to present a united front, according to a senior European diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity.

“Europe in this situation does not have a huge amount of credible leverage over Azerbaijan,” he said.

The power will not go out in Europe without Azerbaijani gas, but that is not the point, says Benjamin Godwin, a risk analyst specializing in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

“The EU’s strategy is to have as much gas from as many different locations as possible,” he says. “And while it is not reliant on Azeri gas, it would like to have more gas from Azerbaijan to ultimately reduce its dependence on Russia.”

That energy partnership “does not change our stance on the human rights situation in Azerbaijan,” the EU spokesman told the BBC.

President Aliyev has other benefits to Europe besides gas.

He has consistently supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity in the face of Russia’s invasion – a rare stance among ex-Soviet states seen by the Kremlin as allies.

Although Azerbaijan has not imposed sanctions on Russia, it has supplied Ukraine with humanitarian aid.

Baku’s relations with Moscow have taken a dive in recent months.

An Azerbaijani Airlines plane crashed with the loss of 38 lives last December – apparently shot down by mistake by a Russian anti-aircraft missile.

The crisis then deepened following the deaths of two Azerbaijani men in Russian police custody.

By openly challenging Russia, Aliyev has sought to take on a larger role in a region traditionally dominated by Moscow, experts say. But he also presents himself to the West as an opponent of Vladimir Putin.

“Azerbaijan has pocketed the attention and they played it pretty well. They are seeing that all sides want to be friends with them and they are making use of that in all directions,” the senior EU diplomat told the BBC.

Another well-placed European diplomat said: “We are absolutely not happy with [Azerbaijan’s human rights record], but there is not much we can do.”

When seven Azerbaijani investigative journalists were given long jail terms last month, the EU’s diplomatic service (EEAS) said it was a “worrying development” and called for “immediate steps to ensure a safe and enabling environment for all journalists.”

So far the EU has stayed silent over Bahruz Samadov’s jail term for treason. But his friends say he recently tried to take his life and fear for his safety.