Armenia Caught in the Pincer of Iran and Georgia

The crisis in Georgia will affect Azerbaijan, because all pipelines which carry Azeri oil traverse Georgia.

The riots in Iran erupted when the government increased gasoline prices. But that was the straw that broke the camel’s back; the imposition of strict religious rules on the citizens, compounded by continued economic hardships as a result of US-imposed sanctions, plus Iran’s regional political ambitions were all factors, leading to the current public uprising.

Of course, all of the above needed a spark, which came through the Internet. In today’s world, most governments do not fully control their populations, as major forces are able to undermine that control through the Internet, which can be a blessing in many ways but also a powerful weapon in cyberwar. We have seen the scenario repeated in many countries. But even the major powers blame each other for weaponizing the Internet and influencing election results.

The riots began on November 16 and swept through the country, with Amnesty International estimating that  106 people were killed by the government forces during the crackdown.

Interference by foreign entities to destabilize the country is designed to feed on existing grievances, brought about through economic hardships.

In Iran’s case, the ethnic fault lines come in very handy as well, as Iran’s population of 80 million includes 20 million Azeris. For a long time, the partition of Iran — breaking off the north — has been part of US strategic plans.

The destabilization plans begin with fanning discontent which is already brewing among the population. When the government retaliates, each victim is a “blessing” for the powers interested in regime change. It is no surprise that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has appealed to Iranians to send pictures, videos and other documents to be used against the government. Jon Gambrell, at the AP, reports that “the acting commander fo the Revolutionary Guard, Gen. Ali Fadavi, repeated the allegation that America was behind the protests, without offering any evidence to support his claim.”

One would wonder what evidence one needs after the public obsession of the Trump administration to punish Iran.

And since the Internet has been weaponized, the Iranian government shut down the Internet on November 16.

“Why did [the Americans] get angry after we cut off the Internet?” asked Favadi, adding, “because the Internet is the channel through which the Americans wanted to perform their evil and vicious acts.”

Currently, there is a lull in the protests after the arrest of more than 2,000 demonstrators.

Since President Trump has withdrawn from the Iran nuclear deal unilaterally, Tehran has resumed its race toward nuclear weapons, further aggravating the situation.

Israel will not tolerate a nuclear Iran. Therefore, today’s crisis may be considered a prelude to a more violent confrontation.

From the Armenian perspective, losing Iran as an outlet pales compared to the larger problems engulfing the entire region should that happen.

Aharon Vardanyan, an expert on Iranian studies in Yerevan, warns of potential catastrophe south of Arax River should the government of Iran lose control of the area, which is populated by Turks and Azeris.

“The Turkish and Azerbaijani propaganda machine has been very active using cultural factors, as well as people-to-people diplomacy along with other covert operations. Today, the Artsakh-Iran border is considered the safest area. Should the scenario change, it will become the most dangerous area.”

In view of Iran’s current problems, some circles in Azerbaijan are gleefully preparing for a change of fortunes. A group named Pan-Azeri Movement has already planned a symposium to study the topic, titled “Iran’s Future and the Turks.”

The speakers will focus on the situation in southern Azerbaijan, developments in Iran and their impact on “our compatriots.” This group considers northern Iran to be southern Azerbaijan and the citizens there as “our compatriots.”

Unbeknownst to the respective governments in Tbilisi and Tehran, which are engulfed in their internal problems, these issues in their turn have caught Armenia in their pincers.