Armenian Genocide on Agenda of Biden-Erdogan Summit

Armenia is not a rich country with mineral resources, nor does it have military might nor political clout. Yet, it has lost the moral, legal and historical power of its genocide, which could have been used as a cudgel against Turkey. President Erdogan realizes much better than the Armenian politicians the political weight of the issue. We have witnessed how much his administration is invested in pseudo-scholarship, media campaigns and political actions to deter President Biden’s recognition of the Armenian Genocide on April 24, 2021, which came to crown the legislative actions that the US Congress had taken earlier.

Now, in view of the Biden-Erdogan planned meeting, which will take place on June 14 on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Brussels, the Genocide issue has emerged in a more spectacular way and most probably will feature as an agenda item during the meeting.

Erdogan realizes better than anyone the legal and political consequences of the recognition of the Genocide by major powers.

Metin Gurcan recently published an article on the website Al-Monitor regarding that forthcoming meeting, highlighting the issues which have strained US-Turkish relations.

The article in particular refers to the Armenian Genocide: “In a TV interview on June 1, Erdogan conceded that his dialogue with Biden ‘has not been easy’ thus far, unlike his ‘very peaceful and easy-going’ phone diplomacy with Trump. Referring also to the terms of George W. Bush and Barack Obama, he said, ‘he never experienced such tension’ with the White House, putting the blame on Biden for recognizing the Ottoman era killings of Armenians as Genocide.”

Turkey has many problems with the US administration, yet Erdogan singles out the recognition of the Genocide, signifying the potential threat to Turkey that it poses.

There has been a row between the two sides over the purchase of S-400 Russian defense systems, with the ensuing ouster of Turkey from the F-35 joint strike fighter program. Other problems include the US trial of Turkish Halkbank, which had helped Iran evade sanctions, the ignored request for the extradition of Fethullah Gülen to Turkey, and US support for Syrian Kurds and Ankara’s tensions with another NATO ally, Greece. All these issues will be on the negotiation table.

All along, Erdogan has been intransigent on the issue of the Russian arms purchases, maintaining that Turkey is an independent country and cannot be treated as a secondary power. However, Erdogan’s administration is in the midst of a political chess game; while highlighting the Genocide issue publicly, his foreign minister, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu is soft-peddling the S-400 issue, insinuating that Turkey may send home the Russian experts manning the defense system and place the arms on Incirlik Airbase under US control, hoping to barter with the Genocide issue.

Armenia’s foreign policy planners may need to learn a lesson from Erdogan, who uses the Genocide issue so skillfully to reach his political ends.

Armenians have to be realistic and acknowledge that it was not only their lobbying efforts that achieved the recognition nor President Biden’s honesty to deliver on his promise, because many politicians and presidential candidates made easy promises only to forget them after winning an election. This time around, a confluence of factors has contributed to the successful end of this political saga.

The cumulative impact of Erdogan’s mischievous activities finally proved that Turkey was using the cover of NATO and power to pursue its own narrow objectives, most of the times against the interests of the alliance. This rude awakening had come not only to President Biden, but also the leaders in Europe. This could not have been formulated any better than what the president of the European Union stated.

President Charles Michel said, “We are not naïve. Turkey is a neighbor, it is a NATO ally, but the European Union has come to the conclusion that Ankara has to be convinced that it has to adopt a positive policy regarding European interests…. In the past Turkey’s behavior did not contribute to European interests. We are ready to use all the tools at our disposal to control Turkey’s behavior.”

It is significant that the statement was made on June 1, on the eve of Nikol Pashinyan’s meeting with Mr. Michel.

Upon his election, President Biden announced that “America is back.” His policies are having their reverberations on international relations. He will be meeting with President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who he accused of being a “killer.” He will meet with his Russian counterpart on that premise.

He was not less complimentary toward Erdogan. Just before his election, President Biden pledged to work with Erdogan’s opposition to unseat him. It was no wonder that he gave a cold shoulder to the Turkish leader, refusing to talk to him after the election. He picked up the phone on April 23 to break the news to Erdogan that he was about to release a statement recognizing the Armenian Genocide. Erdogan’s reaction was uncharacteristically subdued, given the complex nature of his relations with Washington.

Human rights issues have no bearing on Turkey’s president, but when President Biden speaks of human rights, he means business. Perhaps Erdogan will learn that even before his meeting with his American counterpart.

It is obvious that during the Biden-Erdogan meeting, the Genocide issue will be on the table. The US, as a co-chair of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group, was not pleased either with the haphazard arrangements that Russia and Turkey have made in the Caucasus, with the contention that they had solved the Karabakh issue by force.

Let’s hope President Biden will be bold enough to tell his two counterparts that America is back and the unfinished business of Karabakh has to be taken back in hand by the Minsk Group and resolved based on the principles adhered to by the group all along.