Two Different Meetings the Same Day Appear Connected

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In recent days, two important events took place in Armenia that, while different from each other, appear closely interconnected. On September 12, Brendan Hanrahan, head of the US State Department’s Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, visited Armenia. The key topic of discussion with the Armenian authorities was the implementation of the trilateral declaration signed in Washington by the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the United States, including issues related to the realization of the “Trump’s Road for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP). Both sides emphasized the importance of expanding communications and infrastructure networks based on agreed principles — both in the context of regional peace and broader connectivity.

The second important event took place on the same day. The special representatives of Armenia and Turkey met in Yerevan and agreed that the relevant bodies of the two countries would carry out the necessary technical studies for the restoration and operation of the Gyumri–Kars railway and the power transmission line. They agreed to strengthen cooperation in cultural and academic fields, in particular by creating scholarship opportunities for students of higher educational institutions and through the joint restoration of the historic Ani/Silk Road bridge.

Turkish Special Envoy Serdar Kilic also agreed to take the necessary steps to allow other interested airlines to operate flights in various directions starting in the summer of 2026, which will increase the number of air routes and flights between the two countries. It is not excluded that this could involve flights to Armenia operated by different Turkish airlines. However, there is a potential complication: Turkish airlines can fly to Armenia — and are doing so at present — but, as is well known, Armenian-registered aircraft are on the EU aviation blacklist, while the regulations in the Turkish aviation sector are similar to EU standards.

There is no information as to whether the Turkish and American delegations also met with each other, nor is it clear whether the American side is directly mediating the process of normalizing Armenian–Turkish relations. It is noteworthy that prior to the visit of the Turkish delegation, the Armenian government decided to remove the image of Mount Ararat from the entry and exit stamps of visitors’ passports — most likely a gesture by Armenia toward Ankara, rather than a result of Turkish pressure, since Mount Ararat still appears on Armenia’s official coat of arms.

In any case, these two events are significant because Armenia is making concessions in both directions, effectively ensuring the full fulfillment of Turkish–Azerbaijani tandem demands. Moreover, in the case of rail and air transport, Turkey allows the use of its territory for the transit of Armenian passengers and goods if the border with Armenia is opened. The same cannot be said for Azerbaijan, as this involves a road provided by Armenia rather than a safe and unobstructed route provided by Azerbaijan to Armenia.

As noted before, the normalization of Armenian–Turkish and Armenian–Azerbaijani relations are highly interconnected processes. Moreover, the demands and preconditions are quite similar, relating to Armenia’s constitutional changes and the provision of a corridor.

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These two events are also significant because they finalize an alternative overland connection between Turkey and Azerbaijan. Of course, there are routes through Georgia and Iran, but the shortest route connecting Nakhichevan and Turkey will be through Syunik. How safe the Azerbaijani road will be for Armenia remains unclear. Regarding communication with Turkey, it is noteworthy that by specifying the summer of 2026, the Turkish side is likely waiting to see how Armenia’s elections conclude and whether Pashinyan will win the elections scheduled for June 2026, in order to secure the continuation of all these processes.

It is not excluded that a referendum may be held in Armenia during this same period so that Armenia can meet the demands of its two Turkic neighboring states.

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