PeaceTreaty 1 — Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan holds a signed copy of the provisional peace agreement

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News Analysis: Lots of Obstacles Still Stand in Way of Armenia-Azerbaijani Peace

August 11, 2025

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The Armenian Mirror-Spectator

116

The geopolitical struggle among the United States, Russia and Iran is poised to intensify before any durable peace comes to the Caucasus.

The provisional peace deal signed August 8 at the White House by US President Donald Trump, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev is a potential diplomatic thunderbolt that transforms the Caucasus, giving the United States the upper hand in what traditionally has been Russia’s backyard and Iran’s playground. But it is important to understand that the August 8 Joint Declaration is merely the end of the beginning: there is a long way to go before the aspirations outlined in the document are fulfilled.

Though the three signatories to the Joint Declaration touted it as transformative, marking the dawn of an era of “eternal peace,” the document’s provisions are vague and non-binding. In effect, it is a memorandum of understanding, not a contract.

Pashinyan and Aliyev “initialed” what was described as a “peace agreement.” In fact, what they signed was a pledge to keep on talking about a lasting settlement, adding little to what the two had already stated many times previously.

“We acknowledged the need to continue further actions to achieve the signing and ultimate ratification of the [Peace] Agreement, and emphasized the importance of maintaining and strengthening peace between our two countries,” the Joint Declaration reads.

It is worth noting that the Joint Declaration does not mention the main obstacle believed to be preventing the signing of a peace treaty — Azerbaijan’s demand that Armenia amend its constitution to unequivocally recognize Baku’s sovereignty over the Nagorno Karabakh territory, reconquered by Azerbaijani forces in 2023.

The Joint Declaration does appear to potentially overcome another major obstacle — Azerbaijan’s insistence on a corridor between its mainland and its Nakhchivan exclave providing unhindered access for Azerbaijani citizens. The solution is American management of the corridor.

But the American-managed route cannot yet be considered a sure thing. The Joint Declaration acknowledges as much, stating that US and Armenian officials merely express their “determination to pursue efforts in good faith to achieve this goal in the most expeditious manner.” Key operational details remain up in the air, and there is no timeline for negotiations.

“This [August 8] summit was a step forward in the peace process, but the agreements reached leave a lot of questions unanswered. Much of what was agreed at the White House was a repackaging of things that Armenia and Azerbaijan had already agreed in principle,” Joshua Kucera, a senior analyst for Crisis Group, said in a statement.

“Some of Baku’s and Yerevan’s motivation was surely the desire to get on Trump’s good side by giving him a role,” Kucera added.

The transit corridor has been dubbed the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP. Given his predilection for self-aggrandizement, putting the president’s name on the corridor may well increase the odds that Washington remains closely engaged, keeping pressure up on Armenia and Azerbaijan to keep the process moving forward.

For Trump, his personal brand is now at stake. He has got a lot of skin in this game.

The Armenian Mirror-Spectator

Topics: diplomacy, negotiation

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But there are plenty of other forces at work that are intent on scuttling the deal. Russia and Iran, for one, are unlikely to stand idly by as the United States seeks to usurp their regional influence.

If the ideas outlined in the Joint Declaration come into being, “in essence, an American semi-state military base [will be] created in Armenia,” explained Russian political scientist Sergei Markov in a Telegram post. “This is a strong blow to Russia’s interests [and] this is a strong blow to Iran’s interests because all this is right next to Iran’s northern border.”

“This changes the entire strategic situation throughout the entire South Caucasus,” Markov added.

Influential Iranian leaders have already indicated that Tehran will use all means at the government’s disposal to prevent the plan from becoming reality. Ali Akbar Velayati, a former long-time Iranian foreign minister and now a policy advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, characterized the corridor as a “political plot” posing a mortal threat to Iranian security and economic interests, the Tasnim news agency reported.

“NATO wants to lie between Iran and Russia like a viper, but Iran will not permit it,” the Iranian news agency quoted Velayati as saying. He threatened that a US-managed corridor would “turn into a graveyard of the mercenaries of Donald Trump, not a route owned by the US president.”

The Kremlin, meanwhile, is clearly not pleased with developments, but has been more circumspect in revealing how Russia will respond.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova hinted that heavier US involvement will cause heightened volatility in the Caucasus. “The involvement of extra-regional players should work to strengthen the peace agenda and not create additional difficulties and dividing lines,” Zakharova stated. “We would like to avoid the sad experience of Western assistance in resolving conflicts in the Middle East.”

Beyond probable mischief-making by Moscow and Tehran, final approval by Armenia is a question mark. Pashinyan is likely to face determined domestic opposition to the plan. Polling data indicates that only about one-third of Armenians believe the country is headed in the right direction.

“For Armenia, [the peace deal] offers a path toward economic diversification and greater strategic autonomy, but its success hinges on navigating domestic polarization and countering external interference,” said Nima Khorrami, an associate research fellow at the OSCE Academy in Bishkek.

Ultimately, there are lots of hurdles on which TRIPP could stumble.

“If Trump is looking for an easy peacemaking win, he’s not there yet in the South Caucasus,” Kucera said. “A lot of hard work remains to be done to achieve a real, sustainable peace.”

(This analysis originally appeared on the website www.eurasianet.org on August 11.)

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