Last week saw a significant development with implications for Armenia’s exports: the escalating global trade war triggered by the Trump administration resulting in imposition of reciprocal tariffs on more than 60 countries. In his book, The Art of the Deal, Donald Trump emphasizes the importance of setting ambitious goals. The hope is that counterparts, unsettled by Trump’s unpredictability and hardline stances — as well as the potential use of force — will be forced to adapt to his terms, approaching negotiations from a weaker and more anxious standpoint. That is exactly the strategy Trumps is currently pursuing with the imposition of tariffs on a number of countries. Trump’s widespread tariffs, justified as a response to perceived unfair trade practices, prompted over 50 countries to seek negotiations.
Despite drawing significant domestic and international criticism, these tariffs compelled many nations to re-evaluate their trade policies with the US. As far as Armenia is concerned, starting April 5, the US imposed 10% tariffs on all imports, which includes Armenian goods. This action, stemming from Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy targeting countries that restrict US market access, will likely increase prices and reduce demand for Armenian exports like aluminum, stones, precious metals, agricultural products, and alcohol, potentially harming those sectors’ competitiveness.
In 2024, the total value of goods traded between Armenia and the United States was estimated at $282.4 million. US exports to Armenia amounted to $160.8 million, marking a 14.8% decrease (or $27.9 million) compared to 2023. US imports from Armenia totaled $121.6 million, down 8.4% (or $11.1 million) from the previous year. The US trade surplus with Armenia stood at $39.2 million, which is a 29.9% drop (or $16.7 million) compared to 2023.
The changes in US-Armenia trade figures between 2023 and 2024 were unrelated to the current tariff situation and instead reflected typical fluctuations in trade between the two countries, but these figures do give an indication of the scale of bilateral trade. The US in 2024 was not even among the top five trading partners of Armenia but was in seventh place.
Trump’s tariffs introduce a new item agenda in Armenian-American relations, replacing the previous one largely focused on US aid, which is now less relevant. For years, all kinds of assistance programs dominated the Armenian-American agenda. This included the support that Washington provided to the police, the justice sector, the judicial system, some economic programs, etc. Now that President Trump has significantly reduced the provision of foreign assistance, the Armenian-American bilateral agenda has become even more insubstantial. If American assistance programs are no longer on the agenda, USAID is no longer operational, then the areas of cooperation will also significantly decrease. So the imposition of tariffs by Trump might actually provide a window of opportunity for a new track of cooperation between Armenia and the US.
Instead of disappointment, this situation offers a chance to revitalize Armenia-US negotiations. There are a few key points to consider. Though Armenia is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are not targeted at the Union itself, but rather at individual member countries of the Union. This fact gives the member states the right to carry separate negotiations with other states on this topic.
