Berge Jololian

The Next Dictator the World Must Confront

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By Berge Jololian

Ilham Aliyev is a name that should strike fear into the hearts of journalists, opposition figures, and anyone who still believes in minor inconveniences like free speech and democracy. Continuing the proud tradition of nepotism-fueled authoritarianism, Aliyev proves that dictatorship is a family business, much like Assad’s, except with a discount dictator flair.

Much like his idol Vladimir Putin (because what’s a modern autocrat without a role model?), Aliyev has mastered the art of rigging elections, silencing critics, and striking convenient deals with fellow strongmen. If Putin is the blockbuster villain of global politics, then Aliyev is the straight-to-DVD knockoff — lacking originality but still managing to wreak havoc. And let’s not forget his big brother in dictatorship, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who provides backing, military aid, and diplomatic cover whenever Aliyev needs a helping hand. They practice the same brand of strongman rule — consolidating power, crushing dissent and rewriting history while pretending democracy is alive and well.

Aliyev’s regime doesn’t just stop at jailing critics — it takes things up a notch with police brutality, forced confessions and extrajudicial punishment. International watchdogs have repeatedly pointed out Azerbaijan’s widespread use of torture, which the government insists is merely an “enhanced hospitality program” for dissidents. Even Azerbaijan’s state-controlled institutions, not exactly known for self-reflection, admitted that at least 452 individuals were subjected to physical abuse in 2022 alone. That’s a level of self-awareness you don’t often see from a dictatorship.

Criticism is met not with rebuttals, but with arrests, exile, or worse. Gubad Ibadoghlu, an academic and economist, learned this the hard way when he was thrown into prison on charges even Azerbaijan’s state media struggled to justify. Human rights advocate Anar Mammadli has been trapped in a revolving door of arrests and releases for years, simply for daring to speak out. Aliyev’s approach to dissent is simple: if you can’t convince them, jail them.

Azerbaijan is a paradise — if your idea of paradise includes state-controlled news, arbitrary arrests of journalists, and a total ban on independent reporting. The country proudly ranks near the bottom of the global Press Freedom Index, proving that Aliyev is deeply committed to making sure no one tells the truth about his rule. In 2014, he forcibly shut down the offices of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, presumably because their commitment to facts was getting in the way of his government’s carefully curated fantasy world.

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Like any self-respecting dictator, Aliyev understands that power is best enjoyed when paired with a generous helping of corruption. His family controls everything from oil and gas to banking, telecommunications, and construction. Who needs transparency when you can just funnel millions into offshore accounts and bribe European politicians? (Looking at you, 2017 “Laundromat” scandal!) In the same year, Transparency International gave Azerbaijan a corruption score of just 30 out of 100, putting it in an elite club of countries where money disappears faster than civil liberties.

Aliyev has built a cozy alliance with some of the world’s most notorious leaders, forming a club of mutual support and shared authoritarian best practices. Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and even Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu are among his go-to partners. Erdogan, in particular, serves as Aliyev’s political mentor, military supplier, and international apologist. When Aliyev needs to invade or ethnically cleanse, Erdogan is there to cheer him on and provide drone support. Over $7 billion in Russian weapons, double that amount from Erdogan, and more arms from Israel than Russia ever sent — because even dictators need variety.

These alliances have given Aliyev the confidence to unleash military aggression in Nagorno-Karabakh, where his idea of diplomacy involved starving 120,000 Armenians before launching a full-scale attack. Having successfully ethnically cleansed Nagorno-Karabakh, he is now setting his sights on Armenia itself. He even borrowed a page from Putin’s playbook, referring to Armenia as a “fascist state” in need of eradication. It’s almost cute how dictators think reusing old propaganda makes it more believable.

The world has a long history of ignoring autocrats until it’s too late. Remember when the international community shrugged off Putin’s invasion of Crimea in 2014, only for him to go full-scale in 2022? Well, history is repeating itself, and Aliyev is more than happy to play the role of the next dictator the world fails to stop in time. If there’s one lesson history has taught us, it’s that ignoring autocrats never ends well. Maybe, just maybe, this time the world should pay attention before another nation is wiped off the map.

For Armenians worldwide, now is the time for unity and unwavering support for the Armenian government as it navigates an unforgiving geopolitical landscape. The forces aligned against Armenia — Aliyev, Erdogan and Putin — seek not just territory but the erasure of a nation, a history, and a people. We must rally together, stand firm, and strengthen our diplomatic and military resilience to counter their aggression.

As Paruyr Sevak once wrote, “We are few, but we are called Armenians, we shall not be broken.” And Yeghishe Charents reminded us, “O Armenian people, your only salvation is in your collective strength.” It is time to heed their words. The struggle for Armenia’s survival is not just the burden of those within its borders – it is the duty of Armenians everywhere. Let us unite, resist, and ensure that the Armenian nation endures against the tide of dictatorship and oppression.

(Berge Jololian resides in Yerevan, Armenia, and is a specialist in security and cybersecurity with a Master’s degree in Information Technology. He has a keen interest in the geopolitics and international dynamics of the southern Caucasus and the broader region.)