Turkey Elections: After Two Decades of AKP Rule, a Showdown Looms

The general public’s trust in the opposition’s capacity to rule, as well as the opposition’s self-confidence, were both significantly boosted with these municipal victories. Most significantly, they allowed the opposition to break through the psychological barrier that portrayed the AKP as an unbeatable opponent.

The second change brought about by Turkey’s 2018 transition to a super-presidential system relates to the de-institutionalization and de-democratization of Turkish politics. The new system, which granted the executive superpowers and lacked any kind of checks and balances, quickly destroyed Turkey’s functioning institutions. The system turned out to be not only a de-democratizing path for Turkey, but an obstacle to addressing growing economic challenges.

In the past, the AKP’s strong economic performance was a key factor in its continued electoral success and the effective use of formal and informal redistributive mechanisms. This was critical to the AKP’s ability to forge a cross-class electoral coalition. Today, the decline in economic growth rates, combined with sharply rising inflation, have made it more likely for AKP supporters to defect based on economic and democratic dissatisfaction – albeit slowly.

Shifting support

Although the AKP is Turkey’s largest party, the continued disintegration of its electoral base has made it more challenging to gain the necessary 50 percent + 1 of the vote for the presidency. The AKP’s percentage of the total vote in 2018 general elections was 43 percent, while that of its key coalition ally, the National Movement Party (MHP), was 11 percent. Currently, according to a number of polls, the MHP’s support is about 7 percent and the AKP’s 35 percent.

Yet, anti-Erdogan sentiments among the electorate do not necessarily translate into direct support for the Nation Alliance, which needs the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP)’s support to guarantee a parliamentary majority. The HDP-led Labour and Freedom Alliance recently declared its support for Kilicdaroglu, making him the clear frontrunner.

This significant electoral backing, however, requires the Nation Alliance to strike a tough balance, as this collaboration risks alienating nationalist voters. The fact that the nationalist-leaning Good Party is in the alliance is not enough to satisfy voters who want more hawkish policies on topics such as immigration and the Kurdish issue.

Knowing this, the incumbent government is using the nationalist card and anti-HDP sentiments to sway undecided voters away from the opposition, and increase its support among those who value “state security”. The government’s narrative centers on framing the opposition as an alliance of “traitors and terrorists”, with the pro-Kurdish HDP having a hidden seat at the table. The Nation Alliance is commonly known as the Table of Six; Erdogan has renamed it the Table of Seven.

The other two candidates running for president, Muharrem Ince and Sinan Ogan, make it even more unlikely for Erdogan or Kilicdaroglu to win a majority in the first round of voting.

Meanwhile, Turkish society remains deeply divided, even when it comes to an event as devastating as the recent earthquake that killed more than 55,000 people. A recent poll found that less than 40 percent of respondents were satisfied with how the government handled the earthquake – but there were significant divisions along partisan lines, with more than 90 percent of AKP voters giving a favorable rating and more than 95 percent of CHP voters giving a negative rating.

These numbers show why Turkey’s next election is being viewed as a battleground. Many participants have made up their minds and will not change their thinking, no matter what happens. But the choices of those who have grown discontented with both the incumbents and the opposition will have an enormous effect on the outcome.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.

(Evren Balta is a Professor of International Relations and Chair of the International Relations Department at Özyeğin University in Istanbul, Turkey. Her main research interests are populism, foreign policy and citizenship. She is the author of Global Security Complex (2012), Age of Precariousness (2019), and The American Passport in Turkey: National Citizenship in the Age of Transnationalism (2020). This piece originally appeared on the Middle East Eye website on May 9.)