Armenia in Flux

Clearly, Azerbaijan’s joining to the alliance will only strengthen the hand of the other unfriendly allies of Armenia. Besides, it will improve the trail of trade with Turkey where an important chunk of Azerbaijan’s petro dollars is invested. To add insult to injury, Turkey’s influence will be enhanced greatly in the region because Georgia has allowed Ankara to invest in its Ajarian province, almost to the extent of Turkifying the province, which is along Armenia’s trade route to the Black Sea. The Turkification process of Ajaria has been facilitated since the population there is already Muslim.

Returning to the domestic front, one salient change was the appointment of Vigen Sargsyan to the post of minister of defense. During his tenure as the president’s chief of staff, Sargsyan demonstrated that he has a solid grasp of modern statecraft. Little was known of his expertise in military matters. It turns out that during the dust-up with Azerbaijan, Armenia’s strategic losses were not due to a lack of bravery on the part of the Armenian military, but rather the military’s procurement department, whose budget had been diverted to the pockets of the military brass, rather than purchase bullets, fuel for tanks and weapons. Speculations are that the move to replace Ohanian, the longtime defense minister, was intended to remedy the situation.

The other significant change is the appointment of the current prime minister, Karen Karapetyan, who gave up a very lucrative position at Gazprom in Moscow to head the government in Yerevan. He is independently wealthy and has an intimate connection with the business world. He is an articulate, dynamic and no-nonsense technocrat. He has scared the hell out of government employees through his ruthless cuts through the ranks to run a slim and trim government apparatus.

It takes some courage and confidence to take the job in Armenia’s miserable current situation.

He has vowed to apply the rules uniformly, fight corruption and help the middle and small businesses which are suffering the most at the hands of tax collectors.

The reason Armenia has failed to develop a middle class and inspire some hope for the future has been the unscrupulous exploitation of tax laws, which have been wielded in a capricious manner and whose direct beneficiaries are individuals high up in the government.

The new prime minister has stepped into a very dangerous territory. He has asked for accountability from government officials about their illegal income. This may be the straw which could break the camel’s back. Either he will be thrown out of his office or the government employees will shape up, to the benefit of the public, as was done in neighboring Georgia.

Even the most ardent critics of the government have given the Stepanakert-born economist and businessman the benefit of the doubt because he radiates confidence.

He has extended his hand to the diaspora Armenians who thus far have zero confidence in the fair application of the laws in Armenia. Once he can contain the corruption, then Karapetyan can rely again on the diaspora.

While the prime minister has set the mood in a positive direction, the ruling Republican Party in the background has been trying to consolidate its position and perpetuate its rule in Armenia.

The Republican Party held its annual convention recently, which harkened back to the Soviet Party convocations with 1,700 delegates — no dissension, no discussion and no independent voices. The convention was harshly and correctly criticized for its content and style, none of which augurs well for the future.

In his speech, President Serzh Sargsyan himself admitted that one third of Armenia’s population was living under the poverty line. More than one million have left the country. In front of this debacle the only place for a ruling party should have been out of the government, not even more firmly entrenched. The president mentioned offhand that the philosophy of the party is inspired by Garegin Nejdeh. Nejdeh is indeed a historic figure. He saved the Sunik region in the south for Armenia and in his later years, he proselytized a tzeghagron or racialist philosophy, based on Nazi ideology, a concept anathema to today’s global society.

Another piece of theatrics was that 7,000 citizens overnight became members of the Republican Party, a practice inherited from the Soviet era. Now, those joining are doing so only for job security.

Party recruitment certainly aimed to pad the ranks for next year’s parliamentary elections, which will be held in May.

The president had ruled out his participation in politics at the end of his current term, but all indications point to the same game of tandem musical chairs in Armenia that is played in Russia, between Vladimir Putin and Dmitri Medvedev.

Indeed, the new constitution, which was railroaded at the last referendum, calls for the prime minister to assume power, leaving a ceremonial role for the president. The constitution also allows only party slates to participate in the parliamentary elections. Now that the Republican Party has a preeminent position on the political scene, there is no other party to challenge it and the new laws are open for Serzh Sargsyan to throw in his hat into the ring — again.

But this situation cannot continue. The current year’s jolts have led to a rude awakening. The next jolt could prove devastating.

Aliyev, once gain has announced that Armenia is faltering, emigration is rampant and that the Azeri army should wait to take over “our territories” peacefully.

This is a challenge to the global Armenian community to disprove Aliyev and bring back Armenia from the brink, shoring up on the domestic front and thus presenting a better chance for alliances.