If Azerbaijan Breaks its Agreements, Are Armenians Prepared to Resist?

While an economic corridor — now named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) — will traverse Armenia, its route remains uncertain. Economically, any such route should intersect Yeraskh, but Azerbaijan demands a southern route across Syunik, perhaps cutting Armenia off from the Iranian border near Meghri. Azerbaijan still craves — and increasingly encroaches — upon Syunik, and uses corridor schemes to advance its goals. TRIPP’s longevity is also questionable: There is little likelihood that it will survive Trump. Again, there is precedent: Aliyev agreed to abide by the November 9, 2020 ceasefire, only to violate it with a blockade and renewed invasion.

Will Azerbaijan Seize Syunik?

When Trump leaves office or dies, Aliyev may calculate that he can simply seize Syunik through force, much as he did Nagorno-Karabakh, especially since Azerbaijan’s population is more than three times that of Armenia. Even today, Aliyev respects Trump’s finger-wagging no more than he did Acting Assistant Secretary of State Yuri Kim, whose subsequent humiliation he relished. Simply put, while Pashinyan gambles on peace, Armenians should prepare for the worst.

Every Armenian should visit Kapan, the capital of Syunik, to see a vulnerability that it is possible to ignore living in Yerevan or Glendale. To land at the Kapan airport is to land on the Azerbaijani border; the situation is so dangerous that European Union observers monitor every flight that arrives or departs to ensure Azeri snipers do not try to down the plane. Along roads near the Armenia-Azerbaijan frontier, Armenian workers scramble to build bunkers lest Azerbaijanis occupying the high ground seek to cut off major roads and farmland. Residents in agricultural village like Nerkin Hand or resort towns like Jermuk live life under the constant threat of Azerbaijani snipers or artillery. Azerbaijan is well-practices in citing fictional provocations to justify attacks and occupation.

Are Armenians Prepared to Resist?

In such a situation, prudence dictates preparation, but hardware is not enough. Armenians face perhaps the gravest threat to their existence in the region since the Genocide. Simply declaring Aliyev a man of peace does not make it so anymore than declaring Talaat Pasha a humanitarian would make the chief architect of the Armenian genocide anything other than a man culpable for the murder of more than one million.

Pashinyan is the elected prime minister, but in a democracy, he does not win special status as the only voice for the nation, nor does he have a mandate to control civil society. If their government will not prepare, Armenians themselves should. Ukrainians prevented a Russian walkover of their country with careful preparation. Ukrainians had the patriotism, but they also had the skills – they had trained.

Likewise, even when the Islamic State swept across western Iraq and eastern Syria, Kurds resisted, hectoring the Turkish-backed Islamist group from behind its line and rescuing countless Yezidi and Christian captives.

The question Armenians must now ask is whether they are prepared to defend a Syunik under Azerbaijani occupation: Do Armenian men, women, and teenagers have weapons training? Have potential leaders established cells and hidden arms and ammunition caches? Do Armenians across Syunik have access to satellite phones, jammers, and other electronics they will need to communicate with each other or confuse Azerbaijani drones and patrols? Do Armenian cells have access to night vision goggles, sniper scopes, and even the components for improvised explosive devices to counter invader armor?

Prior to 2020, Armenians were unprepared, especially for Azerbaijani drone warfare and for new ways of fighting. Too many Armenian politicians were in denial that Azerbaijan would simply start a war, especially against the backdrop of the Minsk Process. Today, Pashinyan, Aliyev, and Trump might celebrate a new agreement, but Armenians should ask whether history is simply repeating.

(Michael Rubin is director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.)