Iranian-Israeli conflict highlights Armenia’s difficult geopolitical position

“Iran has long played a pivotal role in preserving Armenia’s territorial integrity and preventing the establishment of the ‘Zangezur Corridor,’” wrote Yeghia Tashjian, in a commentary published by Armenian Weekly, adding that “Baku and Ankara view Tehran’s weakness as a window of opportunity to exert pressure on a regionally isolated Armenia.”

The issue seems important enough for Iran that, even as Tehran was exchanging rocket barrages with Israel, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on June 17 cautioned Azerbaijan against taking any unilateral action, characterizing the Zangezur issue as a “redline” for Iran.

It is far from certain at this point whether such Iranian rhetoric is sufficient to deter Baku. Ilham Aliyev’s administration seems intent on keeping its options open, while ratcheting up the pressure on Yerevan.  On June 14, a presidential foreign policy adviser, Hikmet Hajiyev, called on Armenia to “take the first significant step toward opening the Zangezur Corridor.” And in remarks delivered in Baku on June 18, Aliyev stated that Armenia should facilitate the return of Azerbaijanis to what Azerbaijan describes as the West Zangezur region, or Armenia’s Syunik Province. Aliyev claims that hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis were forcibly pushed out of the area during the early 20th century.

“Historical justice requires ensuring the peaceful and safe return of these people to their homeland,” Aliyev stated.

While menacing Armenia, Azerbaijani officials took steps to reassure Iran that their country would remain on the sidelines in the Iranian-Israeli confrontation, despite Baku’s strong defense and security ties with Israel. In a June 14 phone conversation with Araghchi, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov stated Azerbaijan “will under no circumstances allow its airspace or territory to be used for attacks against Iran or any other countries,” Iran’s Mehr New Agency reported.

Azerbaijani trade is also threatened by the Iranian-Israeli conflict, especially along the North-South corridor, which handles goods moving from Asia via Iran and Azerbaijan to Russia. Iran is the key node in the network. Although far from fully developed, the North-South corridor is an important lifeline for the Kremlin, which uses it to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions and keep its war effort in Ukraine going. Trade along the corridor boomed in 2024, especially trans-Caspian, bilateral commerce between Iran and Russia.