Soldiers at the Russian 102nd military base in Gyumri put up a show for visitors (Photo gov.ru)

Armenia Denying Existence of Peace Treaty Provision to Close Russian Military Base

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A new knot is being added to the already tangled efforts of getting an Armenian-Azerbaijani peace treaty finalized.

Both sides have acknowledged that the treaty text is ready for signing, but an authoritative version has so far not been published. Azerbaijan has set several preconditions it says must be fulfilled before a signing ceremony can take place. Baku’s chief concern is a need for Armenia to amend its constitution to unequivocally recognize Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over the long-contested Nagorno-Karabakh territory.

On May 17, state-connected Azerbaijani media outlets floated a potential bombshell revelation – that one of the treaty’s provisions bars foreign (i.e. Russian) troops from being based on the territory of either state. That message was repeated by Hikmet Hajiyev, a presidential foreign policy adviser, in comments first published by the Iranian news agency Tasnim.

“External forces are trying to impose their views,” Hajiyev is quoted as saying. “Baku and Yerevan must determine the path to stability themselves.”

If accurate, a ratified treaty would seem to spell the end of the Russian 102nd military base outside the Armenian city of Gyumri. The current lease agreement runs until 2044.

“It remains unclear how this will be implemented in practice, considering that the base in Gyumri was created in 1995 on the basis of an intergovernmental agreement,” a commentary published by the Azerbaijani 1News outlet stated.

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Armenia officials are vigorously denying the existence of any such treaty provision. When queried by journalists in Yerevan during a press conference, parliament Speaker Alen Simonyan responded: “It’s absurd, I hear it from you for the first time.”

“This is not discussed and cannot be discussed,” Simonyan added, referring to the basing issue.

Understandably, the reported presence of an expulsion clause in the treaty received lots of attention in Moscow, with Russian media outlets amplifying Armenian denials.

The timing of Azerbaijan’s purported revelation coincides with another spike in tension between Baku and the Kremlin. The latest burst of mutual rancor occurred after Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev snubbed his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin by deciding to skip Victory Day celebrations on May 9 in Moscow. The festering hostility is rooted in Russia’s refusal to take responsibility for the accidental shoot-down of an Azerbaijani civilian airliner last December in the skies over the Russian province of Chechnya. The supposed treaty-provision announcement, then, could be just another way for Baku to tweak Russia.

The Azerbaijani move also potentially complicates Yerevan’s efforts to improve ties with Russia. Over the past 18 months, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government has moved to diversify the country’s geopolitical options by strengthening relations with the United States and European Union, vexing Russia, Yerevan’s traditional ally, in the process. Of late, however, Pashinyan has sought to mend fences with Moscow, seemingly out of a desire to augment Armenia’s political leverage to get Azerbaijan to sign the peace treaty.

Despite Yerevan’s denials, the claimed basing provision in the draft peace treaty could raise concerns in Moscow about a possible Armenian double-cross. Russia is eager to maintain a strong security presence in the South Caucasus that the Kremlin can potentially use as a lever of political influence.

Azerbaijan lately has sent multiple signals that it wants to diminish Russia’s strategic presence in the region. On May 19, Azerbaijani Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov traveled to Israel to meet Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, with both affirming the two states intend to enhance security cooperation.

And on May 18, Iran and Azerbaijani began four-days of joint military drills in Karabakh, marking a rare display of bilateral security cooperation. The exercises also signify a jab at Yerevan, which has long maintained strong ties with Tehran.

During a May 17 meeting in the Iranian capital with Armen Grigoryan, the secretary of Armenia’s  Security Council, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi “called for the swift conclusion of a long-awaited peace treaty,” Tasnim reported.

(This article originally appeared on www.eurasianet.org on May 20.)

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