As Armenia enters 2025, it is clear that the year will present significant geopolitical challenges for the country. Armenia’s security, political stability, and economic development will continue to be shaped by complex dynamics. The ongoing tensions with Azerbaijan over the so-called Zangezur corridor, Iran’s weakening positions in the region, fall of the Assad regime, the Russian-Ukrainian war and evolving role of Russia in the South Caucasus and the change of global power all lead to a volatile situation.
Iran’s Weakening Positions in the Region
Iran’s positions in the region have significantly weakened after the downfall of the Assad government in Syria. Previously Iran had been deeply involved in supporting Bashar al-Assad together with Russia but eventually reduced its engagement due to the Iranian confrontation with Israel and other factors. While Iran had traditionally maintained a significant presence in Syria, especially through military bases and alliances with groups like Hezbollah, the recent ascendancy of Turkish-backed forces and the withdrawal of both Russian and Iranian forces from key positions in Syria, as well as Iran’s setback in Israel, led to the loss of Syria and weakening of Tehran’s strategic position in the region.
Another factor that might contribute to Iran’s suppression is US President Donald Trump’s ascendance to power once again on January 20. Given Trump’s previous records of harsh economic sanctions on Iran and Iran’s alleged assassination attempt on Trump, the 47th president of the US will possibly make US policy towards Iran harsher. One former Trump official even highlighted that “Tightening the economic noose around Iran is going to be a day one foreign policy priority to start cleaning up Biden’s Middle East mess.”
Iran’s diminishing influence in the region could pose a challenge for Armenia, especially in light of the ongoing discourse around the so-called Zangezur corridor. It is important to note that Armenia considers Iran as its ally, especially in countering Turkish and Azerbaijani plans of opening this corridor as a link between Azerbaijan and Turkey through the territory of Armenia. The Iranian leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, in the past had repeatedly expressed its opposition to such a corridor. However, following the downfall of the Assad regime in Syria, the Iranian stance on the matter may be weakened.