Symbolism and Realism in the Karabakh Issue

The international community has always imagined a resolution for the conflict based on a scenario in which one or both parties suffer from political weakness. At this time, unprecedented rallies are taking place in Azerbaijan for the release of jailed Azeri bloggers and journalists. It seems that the movement is out of control and Aliyev’s administration is incapable of containing it. The Panama Papers and the Malta Laundromat have embarrassed the dynastic Aliyev regime internationally. On the other hand, the Kremlin had always treated Azerbaijan with kid gloves. But the controversy between Baku and Moscow has taken a serious turn over the recent bad treatment of Russian citizens of Armenian origin in Azerbaijan.

Armenia, in its turn, has presented a similarly problematic situation to the powers-that-be. The Velvet Revolution, which ostensibly had the single goal of overthrowing the previous regime, also has impacted its international relations, particularly with its Moscow standoff and its extension of the Velvet Revolution to Karabakh, when Karabakh is at war and any instability may prove fatal. Despite that delicate situation, there were some demotions among the military brass. Fortunately calls to also replace the civilian government in Karabakh died down when the current president, Bako Sahakyan, announced that he will not seek reelection.

Another sticky point was Pashinyan’s announcement that Karabakh should be a party to negotiations. Unfortunately, he did not stop there and he went on to state that Armenia is not authorized to negotiate on behalf of the Karabakh government. That statement is a double-edged sword; by forcing the parties to treat Karabakh as an independent entity at the negotiation table it may also mean that Karabakh is on its own before the international community, weakening its bargaining position.

Following the recent elections in Armenia, the new government was challenged to sign a pact with the Karabakh administration about assisting each other in case of aggression against either party. That motion was tabled after a seasoned statesman, Andranik Kocharyan objected. Kocharyan has served as deputy minister of interior and deputy minister of defense in the past. He is extremely articulate and he can be considered as the most serious asset of the young government.

Armenia faced another diplomatic row with another friend, namely Iran. Damage control was able to prevent the controversy from progressing further, after tarnishing the new administration’s foreign policy. Shock waves were sent through the news media when one of the young deputies in the parliament representing Pashinyan’s My Step Party, Hayk Konjoryan, had a slip of the tongue when in his speech he stated that Armenia is surrounded by authoritarian governments like Turkey, Azerbaijan and Iran. Of course, no one has any doubt that Iran is ruled by an authoritarian government, but that kind of a statement in the parliament about the only country in the region friendly to Armenia sounded awkward. Although the said deputy apologized and admitted it was a slip of the tongue, the media made a major issue of it, because the incident had coincided with another occurrence, which the media interpreted as a rebuke. Indeed, the chief of staff of the Iranian army, Maj. Gen. Mohammed Bagheri, was visiting Baku and at a meeting with the Azeri Minister of Defense Zakir Hasanov stated that Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan and that Iran supports that country’s territorial integrity.

The news item ricocheted form Baku to Tehran and Yerevan. Finally, the military attache at the Iranian embassy calmed down nerves and said the general’s statement was not a rebuke against the parliament speech. It was a reflection of Iran’s standard policy.

Iran itself has faced a territorial claim from Azerbaijan and the latter’s former president, Abulfaz Elchibey, almost went to war to “liberate” Northern Azerbaijan from Iranian rule. In fact, Iran feels safer and more comfortable when Karabakh joins Armenia, which would extend the Iranian-Armenian border, at the expense of the Iranian-Azeri border.

At this time, Armenia is facing more negotiations as a summit between Pashinyan and Aliyev is being planned. Armenia’s Foreign Ministry is tight lipped about the outcome of the Paris meeting and therefore Armenians are perfectly justified if they don’t raise their hopes at this time.

In the Caucasus, preparing people for peace is an ominous symbol which cannot be taken as a realistic chance for a fair settlement.