Turkey on a Course Set for Self-Destruction

Erdogan’s “mildly Islamic” government was an ally of the virulently Islamic Moslem Brotherhood government in Egypt under Mohammed Morsi. Although Turkey would not cede an inch of territory to the Armenians and Kurds, it was supporting a party in Egypt which does not entertain the notion of the nation-state, and was planning to share its national territory with Sudan and above all, gift the Sinai Peninsula to the Palestinians, to facilitate the policy of Israel’s former Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman and its party, Yisrael Beytenu, to dump Palestinians  from the West Bank in the desert and thus achieve their two-state solution. President Abdel Fatah Sisi’s move saved Egypt from disintegration.

Ankara is also fighting through ISIS to destroy the powerful government of Syria to replace it with a docile regime which would become an extension of Turkey.

In the current war against radical Islam, Turkey has proved to be on the wrong side of history. By pretending to join the 60-nation coalition assembled by President Obama, Turkey obtained the license to dismantle Kurdish organizations and blatantly undermine the forces that the US had trained in Syria to fight ISIS. Compared to the 300 strikes against Kurdish targets, Turkey has bombed only three ISIS bases.

Under a revealing headline of “Turkey duped the US and ISIS is reaping the rewards,” Patrick Cockburn writes in the Independent dated August 30: “The disastrous miscalculation made by the United States in signing a military agreement with Turkey at the expense of the Kurds becomes daily more apparent. In return for the use of Incirlik Air Base, just north of the Syrian border, the US betrayed Syrian Kurds who have so far been its most effective ally against Islamic State.”

While in the New York Times, former US Ambassador to Turkey Eric S. Elderman accuses Erdogan (“America’s dangerous bargain with Turkey”) of unleashing a “new wave of repression aimed at the Kurds in Turkey, which risks plunging the country into civil war.”

It dawned gradually on Washington that Turkey’s policy is diametrically opposed to its own stated agenda. For a long time, Obama administration has refrained from using the mantra of “regime change” in Syria. Even Secretary of State John Kerry did not rule out the possibility of sitting down at a negotiating table with the Assad regime representatives to seek a political solution to the crisis.

Patrick Cockburn further writes in the above article, “There are signs of growing understanding in Washington that the US was duped by the Turks or at best, its negotiators deceived themselves, when they agreed on their bargain with Ankara.”

It is no longer a secret to anyone that Erdogan administration’s obsession is to undo the Kurdish advances in Kobani and along the Syrian-Turkish border. Simultaneously, it plans to neutralize Kurdish political achievements in the last parliamentary elections, hoping that the forthcoming November 1 elections will prove to be more promising.

Because of Turkey’s determined campaign to neutralize the most effective fighting force against ISIS — the Kurds — Washington inadvertently finds itself aligned with the strangest bedfellows. In Iraq, the Shia militants, considered Iran’s proxies, have been fighting alongside the US and allied forces against the Islamic state, while in Syria, a new picture is emerging: most probably with Washington’s tacit agreement, Russia is building a new base in Syria and introducing ground forces. When the US decided to remove the Patriot missiles from Turkey, it was believed that the move was to express Washington’s displeasure regarding Erdogan’s political course. That, perhaps may be true, but it is more logical that the move also intended to accommodate the Russian involvement, which is trying to destroy the Islamic State. All these developments seem reasonable, not withstanding benign public criticisms by the Obama administration.

Erdogan’s game plan has begun to look foolhardy. Turkey’s porous border with Syria which had facilitated the infiltration of ISIS forces into the Syrian theater, also helped the Kurds to introduce heavy armaments in Turkey. At this time, Turkey has become a dangerous place to visit. The tourism sector has become a minor casualty compared with the prospect of Turkey’s dismemberment. In many areas, the government has lost control and the Kurds have set up their own checkpoints.

Prime Minister Mehmed Davutoglu is an astute student of history and realizes that the old treaties may be revived to haunt his country. Turkey owes its current territory to the Treaty of Lausanne of 1923. But before that, Turkey was the signatory of the Treaty of Sevres of 1920, which was never applied. That treaty was designed by President Woodrow Wilson, with the help of General James Harbord. (Incidentally, the chief of staff of the Turkish Army Necdet Ozel has written his PhD thesis on the Harbord Mission.).

That treaty had promised more territory to Armenia and an independent homeland to the Kurds.

Syria is vulnerable against the danger of partition but Turkey is also not immune.

We may underestimate Turkish leaders’ foresight to our own detriment. In front of a potential danger of territorial loss, Ankara cannot do much, except further repression against the Kurds who inhabit the territory. But they can deter another claimant, namely Armenia, by an advanced trap.

Currently analysts in Armenia are worried about the escalation of tension on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border. The recent war games by the combined forces of Turkey and Azerbaijan and the Turkish-made bombs falling not only in Karabagh but also in the sovereign territory of Armenia, are indications that Turkey is planning to engage Armenia in a war to knock it from the equation, should a territorial partition become a reality.

At this time, Armenia should be worried with this existential threat. Let the rest of the world worry about the wave of terrorism spread around the globe by Turkey, destroying past civilizations on its murderous path.