While Russia continues its war in Ukraine and still lacks the capacity to fully pursue and service its interests in the South Caucasus, Iran begins to take the initiative into its own hands — at least from a diplomatic standpoint.
On December 15, Ali Akbar Velayati, adviser on international affairs to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, during a meeting with Armenia’s Ambassador to Iran, stated that the Trump Route is essentially identical to the so-called Zangezur Corridor. Velayati noted that Iran has opposed the corridor from the very beginning, as Tehran rejects any change to regional borders and fears threats to its security. According to Velayati, this scenario could lead to NATO’s presence north of Iran, creating serious risks to the security of Northern Iran and Southern Russia.
Notably, the Armenian Embassy in Iran limited itself to issuing only an official statement on this meeting, reporting that the Armenian ambassador emphasized that the Trump Route would be implemented on the basis of the principles of territorial integrity, sovereignty, jurisdiction, and reciprocity of states, and that it would create broad opportunities for regional connectivity and economic development. This information was disseminated by Iranian media outlets but was not mentioned in the Armenian version of the press release. The Armenian ambassador also assured that everything would take place within the framework of Armenia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, and that Yerevan takes into account Iran’s sensitivities.
However, Velayati’s remarks — at least as quoted by Iranian media — are quite sharp and strong. The most interesting aspect is that he is also speaking on behalf of Russia, which is not common diplomatic practice. This may either indicate that the issue has been discussed with Russia or suggest that Iran is sending a signal to Moscow to adopt a tougher stance. It is noteworthy that since August 8, Tehran seemed not to have voiced such assessments, perhaps because it was waiting for certain details. There is a high probability that those details have now become known, and Tehran is effectively rejecting them completely.
This dynamic is also noteworthy in the context of the Putin–Pezeshkian meeting that took place a few days earlier. As the official statement noted, the presidents of Iran and Russia discussed East–West routes, which appeared to be a new element in those discussions. Moreover, following this meeting, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that it is ready to consult with Yerevan on the parameters of the Trump Route initiative and Russia’s possible participation, adding that “there are sufficient grounds for this.”
Another issue arises concerning Moscow. South Caucasus Railways, a subsidiary of Russian Railways, holds the concession to manage Armenia’s railway network, and the region uses Russian railway lines. Furthermore, the Trump Route will largely pass through areas under the responsibility of Russian border guards, which makes it difficult not to take into account Russian interests and its factual presence on the ground. Additionally considering Armenia’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), it is evident that this process cannot proceed without Russian involvement.
