New Regional Order in Disorder

This plan is not laughable, nor just an Erdogan dream, because Ankara’s policy planners are actively pursuing these goals. And the Turks have never hesitated to shed blood to seek their ends.

Erdogan emulates Hitler by attaining technological superiority and inflaming the masses with an ideology of hate and superiority: that of weaponized Islam. Also, Erdogan has legitimized in all this — from Syria to Libya and from Chechnya to Karabakh — the use of jihadist terrorists, by dispensing to them both temporal and divine rewards, $2000 in cash now for each “infidel” head and 72 virgins in the afterlife.

Referring again to Danforth’s piece, we read about Erdogan’s plans: “In the face of those threats — real, self-created and imagined — Ankara has sought to exploit the opportunities inherent in changing the global order to turn the tables in its favor. With cross-border military operations in Syria and Iraq, military deployments in Libya and Azerbaijan and some literal gunboat diplomacy in the Eastern Mediterranean, Ankara has been quick to bring hard power to bear in disputes where it feels the reigning status quo is both favorable and brittle.”

Turkey wreaks havoc in many regions, creating disorder, and then imposes its own order on the situation. A case in point is Syria, where Turkish aggression, in collusion with the Islamic State, took 100,000 lives and created a refugee problem, displacing four million. Turkey then played the charitable role, milking billions from European countries to take care of the refugees and keep them from spilling into Europe.

Turkey’s developing relations in the region may not be directed necessarily to isolate and threaten Armenia, but the net impact amounts to that. For example, Turkey has been joining Pakistan to challenge Saudi Arabia for supremacy in the Sunni world. Saudi Arabia heads the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), a position Turkey vies for.

OIC has refused to make the issue of Kashmir a topic on its agenda. That has created a rift between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia and Turkey is capitalizing on that stand off. Journalist Taha Siddiqui has published an article in Investigative Journal, whose title is revealing: “Turkey-Pakistan Jihadi Nexus?”

Indeed, Turkey has recruited jihadists in Syria to go and fight in Kashmir on behalf of Pakistan, as Pakistani Jihadists had fought against Armenian forces in Karabakh. Pakistan is a hub for terrorists, harboring Osama bin Laden and Afghanistan’s Talibans. The Pakistani government has sided with Turkey and Azerbaijan in all global forums against Armenia.

While exchanging terrorists with Pakistan, Turkey has taken another step by organizing a meeting between the foreign ministers of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia to discuss trade and energy programs in the Caucasian region. Ankara also has issued indirect signals to Armenia to include the latter in regional development programs, “if Yerevan behaves.” This probably means Armenia must first give up seeking recognition for the Genocide, which has become a huge liability and source of embarrassment to Turkey, and also ratify and finalize the Kars Treaty of 1923, which set the border between the two countries.

For all practical purposes, Turkey has colonized Azerbaijan by helping the latter to win the war and shore up Ilham Aliyev’s sagging popularity.

But, it turns out now, Turkey is preparing to use Azerbaijani territory as a launching pad to expand its pan-Turanic empire into Central Asia. It is an alarming sign that the Grey Wolves of Devlet Bahçeli are planning to open a school in Shushi. The Grey Wolves party is allied with Erdogan’s AKP and considered to be the external arm of Turkey’s deep state, involved in many criminal acts and assassinations, such as the murder of journalists Abdi Ipekçi and Hrant Dink, as well as the assassination attempt on Pope John Paul by Ahmet Agca, a member of the Grey Wolves. What is more disturbing, the presidents of Azerbaijan and Turkey will attend the groundbreaking.

On this occasion, Hulusi Akar, Turkey’s minister of defense, announced that Erdogan’s government has helped Azerbaijan during the 44-day war with Armenia and will continue to help in the future as well. This means that Turkey and Azerbaijan are up to further mischief in the region.

Azerbaijan’s new status as the launching pad for pan-Turanic expansion is further elaborated by none other than Paul Goble. This former agent of the CIA and employee at the State Department, has become a journalist and scholar stationed in Azerbaijan. He is the author of controversial plans in the region. He was the person who floated the plan for a land swap in 2000 between Armenia and Azerbaijan, known as the Meghri Plan, which at the time many took lightly as a trial balloon, but lo and behold, it became a reality through the tripartite declaration of November 9, 2021.

Mr. Goble’s article appeared in the February 18 issue of Eurasia Daily Monitor, under a very significant title: “Growing Azerbaijani-Central Asian Ties Likely to Trigger Conflicts with Russia and Iran.”

Mr. Goble particularly stresses, “In prosecuting a triumphant war against Yerevan, Baku demonstrated its own ability to act. But just as importantly, Azerbaijan has shown to people and governments in the Caucasus and Central Asia that it is a force to be reckoned with, in part thanks to its growing links with Turkey.”

Mr. Goble further heralds, “Moreover, Kabul, Baku and Ashkhabad recently reached another important agreement promoting what is known as the Lapis Lazuli Corridor linking Afghanistan with Turkey via Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan.”

It is a hypothetical issue whether Baku could have “executed its triumph” alone but one can question why it needed 2,000 Syrian and Pakistani Jihadists and Turkish army brass to man thousands of drones on its behalf. And why did it take 44 days to win a partial victory?

The writer is correct that these developments should worry Russia and Iran. The latter was a net loser in the war, without engaging in the battlefield. As a consequence of the war, Iran has a longer border with Azerbaijan to protect against Israeli intelligence gathering. Tehran has to make strategic adjustments as it has become more vulnerable against a potential Israeli pre-emptive strike against its nuclear facilities.

In addition to its vulnerability, now its own territory is a target for amputation. The reference in Erdogan’s speech during the victory parade in Baku on December 10 seeking the return of Iranian Azerbaijan was not a slip of the tongue, nor a “misinterpreted reference,” because ever since that signal, Turkish and Azerbaijani media have intensified their campaign against Iran, accusing it of colonizing southern Azerbaijan, referring to Iran’s northern region populated by ethnic Azeris.

Thirty eight percent of Iran’s population of 85 million is of Turkish Azeri extraction. Baku and Ankara have been stirring ethnic foment among them, calling on them to claim their Turkic language and heritage.

Based on Goble’s track record, his revelations about Azerbaijan’s new role indicate that Iran’s territorial dissection is not only on Ankara’s and Baku’s radar, but that of Washington and Tel Aviv as well.

Following the 44-day war, the regime in Iran was panicked and dispatched its foreign minister, Javad Zarif, to Baku, Ankara, Yerevan, Tbilisi and Moscow not to be left out of the game and settled in joining the Eurasian Economic Union, to be in the good graces of its northern neighbor.

Turkey has been inciting problems in many parts of the world, even beyond its immediate neighborhood, with impunity. And out of that turmoil it as created a new order of its own, as evidenced in Azerbaijan.

Turkey is certainly following the path of Germany, using very same tactics to achieve its territorial ambitions.

British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s appeasement trip in 1938 to Berlin, only emboldened Hitler in his ambitions.

Who will stop the new monster before it endangers world peace?