Armenia in Transition

At this point, Gagik Harutyunyan is still needed in his position, which he has occupied since independence. He is a survivor, as he has ingratiated himself to all succeeding administrations by rubberstamping many controversial issues and legislations.

Nalbandian has the best chance because of his suave diplomacy and linguistic skills.

There is no room to guess who would be nominated to the position of prime minister because all those changes were made to perpetuate Mr. Sargsyan’s and his Republican Party’s rule. Therefore, on April 9, all he has to do is change his hat from president to continue to rule the country as prime minister. The only technicality remains for his party to nominate him for the position and to garner 50 percent of the votes. Technically, the president has to nominate the prime minister and he has the power to turn down the candidate selected by the parliament but in reality, that option is off the table. If the unforeseen happens, Mr. Sargsyan is savvy and experienced enough to have an alternative candidate up his sleeve who will not tip the cart.

Citizens in Armenia do not anticipate any changes in their daily lives, because the same leadership cannot offer anything other than what it has provided thus far. In anticipation of the forthcoming elections, Sargsyan has forewarned against price hikes. But in a cabinet meeting, he confided that the market fluctuations reflect world trends. However, before those trends cross Armenia’s borders, they are subject to the oligarchs’ monopolies, which can distort commodity prices.

Cosmetic changes have also been introduced in the tax code. The tax rate for the poor, receiving less than 175,000 drams a year has been reduced a few percentage points, which will be offset by the rise of commodity prices and rampant inflation (15 percent). And as the prices of food items climb, the salaries and pensions remain stationary to further strain family budgets.

Any citizen earning 175,000 drams a year or more will pay 2 percent more in taxes, which will further stifle the middle class. The middle class is the backbone of any society, and Armenia has yet to learn how to cultivate and enlarge this group.

It is almost embarrassing to find out that neighboring Georgia has been able to curtail corruption but Armenia cannot. Some cynics argue that Armenia has to run a parallel shadow economy to be able to pay the election bribes!

The president’s promise to increase the population to 4 million by 2040 has yet to be backed by an economic plan. With the pace of emigration and the death rate, Armenia has been experiencing a negative population growth. Perhaps the only other alternative remains to set up a number of fertility clinics to boost the population.

The diaspora certainly does not have a say in the forthcoming governmental structure change, although there is talk that the president needs to appeal to the diasporans, which until recently the government treated in a cavalier manner. Armenia’s perspective of Diasporan Armenians was shaped in the Soviet era and it continues to resist change. That policy is not limited to the current administration but refers to all successive leaders. They do not possess the wherewithal, perspective and mechanisms to work with organized structures; therefore they opt to enlist individuals of means who are more susceptible to be impressed by the glitter of medals. Or they wreak havoc by infiltrating parties to morally bribe some “hopefuls” among the leadership to play them against others. Even the ARF, which is a more disciplined party, has sustained some stress when the silence and cooperation of some party members in Armenia are bought.

Armenians outside the country may be considered to be more naïve and romantic for refusing to accept the current reality, wishing a more prosperous future for the people in Armenia, trying to halt emigration, raising the economic standards of living, etc.

We hope against hope that the transition would bring radical change in Armenia and its relations with the diaspora.

It is not mutually exclusive to love Armenia and to point out some of its disastrous trends.