David Philipps Suggests Turkey Does Not Meet NATO Ideals

Why has Turkey become “an uncertain ally” for America? Is Turkey’s Kurdish policy the only reason?

Turkey’s rapprochement with Russia raises concerns about its response in the event that Russia attacks Ukraine, Poland or the Baltic States. About 140,000 Turks have been arrested or dismissed after the failed coup of July 15, which gutted the Turkish Armed Forces. Targeting Kurdish civilians is a war crime for which Erdogan should be held accountable. Armenians were victims of genocide. Armenians know better than anyone the wrath of Turkey and the duplicity of its leaders.

What about the Kurds? You have spent some time in Iraqi Kurdistan.  What do they think and expect from Turkey? 

Iraqi Kurds have extensive cooperation with Turkey, including energy transport from oil and gas fields in Kirkuk and Suleimania to the port of Ceyhan. Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan are both antagonistic towards the PKK. When it comes to fighting ISIS, Kurdish unity is critical.

How important are the Kurds and the “Kurdish question” for Turkey’s democratization process?

There are about 20 million Kurds in Turkey. However, their political and cultural rights are systematically denied. A dozen members of parliament from the pro-Kurdish HDP are in jail. Kurdish mayors have been arrested or fired. Local community leaders with the KCK are targeted and imprisoned. Turkey cannot be a democracy unless Kurds are fully enfranchised. Instead, the Kurds are victimized. A recent report by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights described mass killings and deportations, despite Turkey’s effort to cover up facts on the ground by denying access to UN investigators.

Do you have doubts about Turkey’s eligibility as a NATO member? 

I propose that the North Atlantic Council establish a Compliance Review Committee to evaluate the performance of NATO members when it comes to democracy and human rights. If a NATO member receives a failing grade two years consecutively, their membership should be suspended. In addition to Turkey, Hungary is also a country of concern.

What do you think will happen after the “April Referendum” in Turkey?  In May, what kind of Turkey should we expect? 

A majority of Turks will vote “no”, rejecting Erdogan’s executive presidency. However, Erdogan will steal the vote and declare victory. Constitutional reform establishing a dictatorship has been Erdogan’s project for years. There is no way he will lose the vote. Instability and social conflict will ensue.

Turkey has been a geopolitically important country for both Europe and Caucasus. Turkey has a huge influence on Azerbaijan, and as you know, Azerbaijan continues to break the ceasefire agreement on a daily basis. How will Turkish political uncertainties affect the region, especially in regard to the Azerbaijan-Artsakh (Karabakh) conflict? 

Turkey will seek to change the Minsk Group by insisting on an expanded role for itself or by trying to shift mediation from the OSCE to the UN. Turkey is a party to the conflict and cannot play a constructive role in mediation. The Minsk group has proven ineffective, but at least it has prevented a spiral of deadly violence from which Azerbaijan and Turkey would seek to benefit.

For many years, you made efforts for Turkish-Armenian reconciliation and opening borders without preconditions. What do you forecast for future relations between Turkey and Armenia?  

The Protocols provide a path forward. Turkey should ratify the Protocols, enabling normal travel and trade and enhanced diplomatic cooperation. Erdogan does not share my view. His idea about reconciliation is to humiliate and abuse Armenians. Reconciliation is a process not an event. Turkish and Armenian civil society should expand their interaction and explore areas for cooperation. We have already seen progress when people get together and can relate in human terms, independent of their governments.

(An Uncertain Ally: Turkey under Erdogan’s Dictatorship, which was published last week, discusses rise of political Islam in Turkey, Erdogan’s political life and ISIS. The “Kurdish question,” which Philips has been dealing with for years, is one of the main topics in the book. The book also covers Erdogan’s childhood, teenage and high school years in a detailed way. The author also covers Erdogan’s introduction with Necmettin Erbakan, his role in the National Vision movement and his days as the Mayor of Istanbul.)