Turkey’s Grand Stand in the Syrian War

Those sanctions shook up the Turkish economy badly. Then Erdogan sold his intangible assets to Putin: his inflated anger against the US for hosting cleric Fettulah Gulen and the insinuation that the US played a role in the attempted coup. Putin did not miss the opportunity to create a crack in the NATO alliance.

While Erdogan was adamantly opposing Bashar al-Assad’s remaining in power, he began soft-peddling the issue, coming to John Kerry’s conclusion that Assad was not the primary goal in Syria, but that ISIS was.

Right after Erdogan’s return to Ankara, Russian charter flights to Turkey resumed. And this time around, the invasion of Turkish forces in Syria only raised a mild “concern” in Moscow while the Syrian government characterized the move as “a violation of its sovereignty.”

Erdogan’s embrace of Putin raised alarms in Washington that a valuable NATO member was breaking ranks from the alliance. Thus, Vice President Joe Biden was dispatched to Ankara to receive a diplomatic cold shoulder and to apologize to Erdogan for arriving late to express his own sentiments and those of President Obama about the coup attempt.

This formal humiliation was also accompanied by a political shift in the Syrian war theater. As stated in a New York Times article, “the new fighting pits the two American-backed Syrian forces against each other: the rebel groups aided by the CIA and allied intelligence agencies and the Kurdish-led militias that work with the Pentagon, under an umbrella group called the Syrian Democratic Forces.”

The Turkish land and air forces, assisted by their Syrian surrogates, occupied Jarabulus from ISIS in an operation called Euphrates Shield. The US ordered the Kurdish forces to move to the east of the Euphrates River, essentially ceding territory that they had overtaken from ISIS. Otherwise, the US threatened to deny arms to the group.

The New York Times article, dated August 29, continued, “The most powerful Syrian Kurdish party is reeling from what its supporters see as an American betrayal after the United States gave the green light to Turkey to send tanks and allied rebels into Northern Syria.”

The Kurds were not only betrayed by the US, but they were also betrayed by their own brethren. Indeed, during this turmoil, the president of the Iraqi Kurdistan, Massoud Barzani, flew to Ankara to shake hands with Erdogan and vowed to fight along Turkey against ISIS and the PKK.

Turkey has bribed the Iraqi Kurdistan by offering business opportunities and by buying directly oil from the Kurds against the objections of the central government.

Ankara also extends diplomatic visits to Kurdistan, bypassing the authorities in Baghdad. Kurdistan, supported by Turkey and Israel, has become the safest and most peaceful region in Iraq. Armenians have also found a safe haven there and participate in the government.

For Iran, which has at best a marriage of convenience with the Syrian Kurds, this does not create a concern, since Tehran has its own Kurdish problem at home.

Kurds have been betrayed many times in history. Even the Sevres Treaty of 1920 had promised territory and independence to them, like the Armenians, and again, like the Armenians, that dream was also shattered.

In view of all the betrayals the Kurds have a saying: “The Kurds don’t have any friends except their mountains.”

Although in today’s technological warfare that idea is also reduced to an academic concept.

A strategic development in the Syria may have consequences for Armenia by reducing tis importance as an ally as Iran offers its Hamadan base for Russia to conduct raids on Syria.

President Putin recently stated that Russia wishes sincerely to improve relations with Turkey. Historically, any rapprochement between Turkey and Russia has taken place at Armenia’s expense. Turkey is leaning on Russia to break loose from the American embrace and Mr. Putin seems to welcome that tendency, whose outcome may undermine US influence in the Caucasus. The development of that trend will certainly concern Iran, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, all of whom vie for primacy in the region.

Turkey has played all its diplomatic cards to make its grand stand in the Syrian war theater. The move will enhance Turkey’s position in the region to the detriment of the Syrian people, especially Christian communities in that country. Turkey’s move will allow Ankara an independent voice in the final settlement of the war in Syria. But where is the end?