Karabagh in a Whirlwind

Armenians are faced with the unpleasant choice of land or peace. But does that formula resolve the problem forever when Aliyev keeps spreading the falsehood that present-day Armenia itself is considered historic Azeri land and when in the 21^st century Turkey’s Deputy Prime Minister Bilani Yildirim maintains that the deportation (or Genocide) of the Armenians was justified in 1915 and if necessary, should be repeated?

If the plan of land for peace is executed, which party can guarantee Armenia’s security?

Let’s look at some historic precedents. To end the atrocities in Sudan, the country of South Sudan was created, but the war continues, this time by the respective factions backing the president and the vice president. Similarly, Serbia was amputated to create Kosovo, which until today, is under NATO tutelage. The moment NATO leaves, the war will resume.

In all probability, Moscow will be delighted to introduce its peacekeeping forces in the region. But Armenians have the historic parallel of Cilicia, where they returned after fighting a victorious war. The French colonizers, who had promised a homeland under their protection, disarmed the Armenians and betrayed them, joining the Kemalists instead.

Therefore, unless Armenia develops sustainable military power to defend itself, it cannot delegate the security and the lives of its citizens to any strategic ally.

Thus far, OSCE has been the main forum dealing with the Karabagh conflict. With two of its members, namely Russia and Turkey, drifting apart, the issue has been transferred to a different arena and that shift is reflected in the arrogant pronouncements of the leaders in Turkey and Azerbaijan. No concrete facts have come out of the recent negotiations. Positions and policies on the Karabagh conflict are being discussed based on scant leaks to the media.

Azerbaijan has never conceded that Karabagh may become independent after ceding all seven regions in question. It has not even accepted the notion of a referendum in the immediate future. All that Baku has promised is a “high level of autonomy within the borders of Azerbaijan,” and this is only a vague promise, which has met with intransigence on the Armenian side.

After much anticipation and speculation, finally a former Kremlin insider, Andranik Mihranian, let the cat out of the bag in an interview on August 14 with www.tert.am.

He said: “I believed that even a child in Armenia could understand that territories had to be exchanged for the approval of independent status for Nagorno Karabagh by the government of Azerbaijan, with the international community — OSCE Minsk Group and others — to be guarantors.”

Mr. Mihranian believes that even an interim status would be “a brilliant fantastic victory for Nagorno Karabagh” because “it would allow Nagorno Karabagh to stop being a part of Azerbaijan within international law.”

Azerbaijan maintains that Karabagh is the integral part of its territory. But Karabagh, as an autonomous oblast, was brought under Baku’s jurisdiction during the Soviet era. Karabagh respected the validity of Soviet constitution and to cede from the Union and from Azerbaijan, the nation held a referendum. Additionally the Republic of Azerbaijan considers Soviet rule as illegal occupation of its territory. Therefore, if Soviet jurisdiction was illegal, how can the Soviet annexation of Karabagh to Azerbaijan be valid? But Turkey and Azerbaijan are using the Islamic card to pass four resolutions at the UN against Armenia to be able to cite that the “international community” endorses Baku’s claim.

“No Armenian leader,” continues Mihranian, “especially Serzh Sargsyan, who has from the outset been involved in the struggle for Artsakh’s independence, will return an inch of land for just no reason, without guarantees for Nagorno Karabagh’s independence and security.”

Had Mihranian’s statements not been corroborated by other sources, it may have been considered a lone voice in the wilderness. Now, we see another voice seconding his claims. That source is another Kremlin player, political analyst Oleg Matveychenko, who has published an article titled “It Is Already Time to Heal the wounds.” It is believed that the article is a trial balloon being floated to test the reactions in Armenia, Karabagh and Azerbaijan about a new package of proposals by the OSCE leadership.

Under five headings, the writer details the scenario of the exchange of territories against Karabagh’s independence and the right to join Armenia.

As they say, the devil is in the details; the writer proposes a corridor in the Meghri region, which encroaches on Armenia’s sovereignty. The narrow corridor, only 150 meters wide, will allow Azerbaijan to communicate with Nakhichevan, incidentally another Armenian oblast given to Azerbaijan by the Soviet overlords. It is kind of a Paul Goble Proposal 2, to which former President Levon Ter-Petrosian had answered that when peace is established, Azerbaijani trucks, trains and planes will cross Armenia’s territory without a special agreement compromising its sovereignty.

There are also other details, which if enforced, may meet the rejection of both parties. The package in its major outlines may indicate a movement in the positive direction. But word about Karabagh independence must be uttered by the Azerbaijani side.

The question is whether recent uproar in Armenia strengthened or weakened the president’s hand at the negotiation table. This writer believed that it could weaken it, but it seems that the popular resolve has resonated beyond Armenia’s borders, warning all interested parties that Armenia is against the wall and cannot be pushed any further.

At this time, Karabagh is in the whirlwind of negotiations. Once the whirlwind subsides, we will find out if Karabagh will become independent, semi-independent or still besieged.