Preventing Deadly Violence in Nagorno-Karabagh

Starting in 1994, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) spearheaded efforts to find a peaceful solution to the conflict Nagorno-Karabagh. The OSCE Minsk Group is mandated to mediate. It is co-chaired by France, the Russian Federation, and the United States. Attempts by Azerbaijan to change mediators have been rebuffed.

Tensions in this “frozen conflict” have increased in recent years. Escalating and well-documented ceasefire violations occurred without consequence. Inaction by the international community encouraged Azerbaijan’s coordinated assault. Azerbaijan recently spent $4 billion buying weapons from Russia. On April 2, Azerbaijan used its upgraded air and land weapons to attack on multiple fronts. Weapons included Smerch rocket systems, Grad missiles, Russian-made T-90 tanks, TOS-1A flamethrowers, modern helicopter gunships, as well as kamikaze drones. All told, over 40 Armenians were killed, including civilians. An ethnic Yezidi/Armenian citizen, was beheaded by Azeri troops. Over 200 Azeri soldiers died in the offensive. No territory was gained.

Azerbaijan did not act on its own. According to eyewitness accounts, Turkish troops and equipment were involved in battles near the Iranian border. The Azerbaijani offensive was immediately endorsed by Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “Nagorno-Karabagh will be returned to Azerbaijan.” Erdogan added, “We will support Azerbaijan until the end.”

Turkey is already a protagonist in this conflict. It maintained a blockade of Armenia since 1992. Erdogan scuttled the 2009 protocols to open the border and have diplomatic relations with Armenia, which Turkish diplomats negotiated.

Azerbaijan claims that Armenia instigated the recent conflict. However, Chatham House and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace maintain that Nagorno-Karabagh forces did not instigate attacks on Azeri positions. Armenians consistently proposed monitors and confidence building measures since 1994. Azerbaijan refused, calling for a military solution. Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defense initially took credit for initiating the offensive.

Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev relies on a combination of oil revenue, caviar diplomacy, and government crackdowns on fundamental freedoms to maintain power. In the face of the recent oil price crash, Azerbaijan’s economy is in decline and its currency has plummeted. Azerbaijan’s civil society continues to oppose the regime’s incarceration of journalists and human rights advocates. Igniting a war with Armenia, even a short one, aims at distracting the Azeri people from the regime’s abuses and economic insecurity.