Challenges at the Threshold of Armenia’s 20th Anniversary of Independence

The unexpected and much-cherished fledgling independence of Armenia was harshly challenged by the devastations of a disastrous earthquake, by a war with neighboring Azerbaijan, a blockade by Turkey, collapse of the economy by a total industrial paralysis, massive unemployment, food shortage and energy crisis, hence, massive exodus of the population. Introduction of the much-touted democracy and market economy was thwarted, and a culture of oligarchy emerged almost as a natural development of Soviet corruption gone rampant. Power and wealth became the privilege of a minority, while the majority of the population remained below the poverty level, with hardly any middle class, which should be the largest sector of a democratic country. Patriotism, national interest, cultural heritage were neglected by the rich, whose only interest was to get richer at any cost, and by the poor, whose priority was to survive. Foreign aid, diasporan help, the essential trade of the country and even the working breadwinner of the people were exploited and usurped by the oligarchs. It was hoped that this is a difficult transitional phase that will be reversed in a generation. Here we are, almost a generation later, with a flourishing capital, Yerevan, but a rapidly deteriorating country.

The new generation, even with the best education, has little hope of finding a job and getting into a career of his choice. He is reluctant to get married, to have an apartment and to raise children. These are luxuries he cannot afford as an honest worker. The situation is less promising in the countryside. Even in industrialized and modern democracies, agriculture is now and then subsidized and/or protected by the government: seeds, irrigation, sale of produce, etc. are monitored and regulated. In Armenia, 75 percent of the land is mountainous and non-arable. According to some statistics, less than half of this cultivable land is being farmed. Available land, water and produce are being more and more exploited by the oligarchs.

The population of Armenia dropped by about 40 percent in the last two decades due to emigration and diminished birthrate. In the mid-’90s there was some easing of the exodus and some increase in those returning to the homeland. But at the onset of the world economic crisis the bleeding restarted with a vengeance. From 2008 to the present estimated 150,000 people left the country. If the current rate of emigration continues unabated, in about 15 years the population of Armenia will drop below the million mark. In the meantime the population of Turkey and Iran is estimated to surpass the 100 million, while Azerbaijan and Georgia will also have a corresponding increase. How could Armenia with a population of less than a million maintain a reasonable existence surrounded by hundreds of millions of mostly unfriendly neighbors?

A declining birth rate does not help either. Sociological statistics have demonstrated that for a society to maintain a stable number, the average birth rate should be 2.1 per female of child-bearing age. In Armenia that index is currently 1.36. Has the country diminished to a critical mass? Have we passed the point of no return?

Armenia is certainly not the only country that has a far larger number of her nationals scattered throughout the world than those residing in the homeland. But diasporas are susceptible to gradual erosion and assimilation especially in a situation of globalization. Large countries can afford to lose a small fraction of their population to dispersion and assimilation. In Armenia a large number of the population relies on assistance sent to them by family members, relatives or friends abroad. But how long can this continue? Is it too pessimistic to be concerned about the very existence of the Armenian nation that after centuries and millennia of struggle and survival, by losing the homeland and the Diaspora, to become an extinct species in the history of mankind? Why this attrition of the Armenian nation at home and abroad? Or is it a sort of self-inflicted genocide?

What a paradox! Millennia of survival of adverse conditions seem to have forged traits of higher intellect in the Armenian genes as evidenced by giving the world a disproportionately larger number of prominent people in all walks of life – artists, artisans, scientists, statesmen, sportsmen, economists, developers, businessmen, military, etc. – yet they are allowing their own homeland of a rich cultural heritage to go down the drain; a glittering capital city in a decaying country; a strong Diaspora extending a helpful hand to Armenia yet facing eventual assimilation and loss of identity; a rare opportunity of independence in a fraction of the homeland, yet instead of replenishing the population, developing the country and pushing its borders through its rightful historic lands to a sea, the country is getting depopulated and the noose of unfriendly neighbors is tightening around its neck.