Next month, dozens of heads of state, hundreds of diplomats, and thousands of activists will gather in Baku, Azerbaijan for the 29th annual UN climate change conference. The UN rotates hosts on a geographical basis. This year, both Armenia and Azerbaijan sought the honor. Rather than ostracize Baku for its ethnic cleansing of Nagorno-Karabakh, the Biden administration urged Armenia to drop its bid. President Ilham Aliyev freed a few Armenian hostages and prisoners of war, but not all. Keeping Azerbaijan happy, the White House and State Department logic went, might encourage Aliyev to be flexible in peace talks.
This was naïve. Across both Democratic and Republican administrations, diplomats have a tendency to view motivation for terrorism and aggression through the lens of grievance rather than ideology. This in turn leads diplomats to base strategy on concessions. If the root of Aliyev’s dispute with Armenia was Nagorno-Karabakh, then that Armenian territory’s return to Azerbaijani control should bring peace. Peace was never Aliyev’s objective, though, and so he cites an ever-growing list of grievances as excuses for his hostility. Today it might be return of exclaves; tomorrow it could be Armenian embrace of Ararat as a symbol. The State Department then beseeches Yerevan to concede to deny Aliyev any excuse for intransigence. The problem is such disputes were never the problem; Aliyev’s ideology is. He harbors deep-seeded racism toward Armenians; he rejects Armenian cultural, religious and political legitimacy in its entirety.
This is why allowing Aliyev to preside over COP29 is a mistake. Rather than advance peace, the festivities instead normalize and launder the regime. This should not surprise. Often, those who accept the logic of sporting diplomacy point to the 1936 Berlin Olympics to show its potential. By winning four gold medals in the heart of Berlin, they say African American runner Jesse Owens discredited Nazis on their home turf. Owens’ triumph may have represented a temporary embarrassment, but not a significant one. Owens’ gold medals did not discredit Hitler’s Aryan supremacism in German eyes; the Holocaust still happened. Hosting an international sporting event simply legitimized Hitler’s rule on the world stage.
Many hope that Azerbaijan’s selection as host could be a Pyrrhic victory; after all, Azerbaijan will not fare well if the international spotlight is upon its record. This is wishful thinking. In 2012, Azerbaijan hosted Eurovision; rather than advance human rights and democracy, the event convinced Aliyev the world would not hold him accountable for repression. Despotism deepened. Corruption increased. Likewise, after Qatar won the right to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup, labor activists critical of Qatar’s migrant worker record sought to transform the spotlight to force the Persian Gulf state to adhere to international norms. The benefits Qatar derived as host more than offset criticism in a few British and American publications.
While some foreign officials like Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo refuse to allow themselves to be a backdrop for Azerbaijani propaganda and so will boycott, many other officials convince themselves that the environment and climate change are too important and so will share the stage with Aliyev. This need not be a bad thing, especially if they use it to force Aliyev to address his own record. American diplomats, for example, might wear wristbands with the names of Armenian hostage. Rather than participate in staged tours for Baku to trot out Azerbaijani Jews or Christians as museum exhibits on behalf of the Azerbaijani regime, they might instead insist on a visit to Ruben Vardanyan, the former state minister of Artsakh, or any of the hundreds of Azerbaijani political prisoners who languish in Aliyev’s prisons.
To participate in the festivities absent sustained advocacy risks transforming COP29 into a new Berlin 1936. Nazi Germany’s worst aggression, of course, followed the Berlin Olympics. The question now is whether Aliyev too may leverage the legitimacy he hopes to derive from COP29 into outright aggression after his VIP visitors return home.
