Just over a century ago, Turkey and the Soviet Union signed the Treaty of Moscow. The agreement fixed the border and formalized relations between the two countries. Shortly after, the Treaty of Kars ensured mutual recognition of borders between Turkey on one hand and Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia on the other. Article XVII of the Treaty of Kars stipulated that there should be “free transit of persons and commodities without any hindrance.” Put another way, Turkey’s decades-long blockade of Armenia is illegal, notwithstanding Ankara’s argument that Turkey acts in solidarity with Azerbaijan. While generations of Turkish leaders argued Armenian rule in Nagorno-Karabakh justified the blockade regardless, Azerbaijan’s conquest and ethnic cleansing of the territory a year ago stripped away that pretext as well and exposed Turkey’s motivation as racial and religious hatred.
Against this backdrop, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and senior American diplomats seek to finalize an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace. They have made progress, but questions of basic trust remain. American officials pressured Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to drop Armenia’s bid to host the COP29 summit, clearing the path for Azerbaijan to host it. Had Americans wanted to test Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev’s acceptance of Armenian legitimacy and existence among his nonsense rhetoric recasting Armenia as “Western Azerbaijan,” they would have demanded he co-host the festivities but Sullivan and Blinken were likely afraid of his answer.
Accepting Turkey’s illegal blockade, Azerbaijan’s revanchism, and both Turkey and Azerbaijan’s resistance to normalization with Armenia is cowardice. Rather than offer Erdogan and Aliyev incentives and reward their extortion, a better American policy would be to stand up to blackmail and force both dictators to abide by their signed agreements.
The White House and State Department could start with aviation. Despite its bluster, Turkey is a second-rate power, yet the reticence of American officials to push back on Turkish aggression encourages Turkish rejectionism.
Turkey’s traditional importance in the post-World War II world lies not in the size of its army, but rather its geographical location. That extends to aviation. Most aviation between the Middle East and Europe, or between the Caucasus and Europe must cross Turkish airspace, especially with much Ukrainian and Russian airspace off limits to international commercial aviation.
Turkey has sought to leverage its geographic position and current importance to international aviation to punish countries and ethnic groups that Erdogan despises.
