Voting for Consolidation of Oligarchy or Democracy?

There are two varieties of opposition groups: one group believes that the authorities have robbed the country enough and it is now their turn to continue the pillage. This sort of opposition can be bought during or even before the elections. The other variety hopes genuinely that by participating in the democratic process, some positive steps can be achieved.

The Republican Party is ready for the elections; during the last party convocation, 7,000 members joined the party overnight, to protect their bread and butter, as the government employs them. Incidentally, joining the party is as easy as dropping out, as proven in the case of recent major defectors.

Over and above the membership drive, all schools, universities, state institutions, regional governors are on notice that their well-being and future are based on the number of voters they can bring to the polls.

Under this system, the Republican Party will not even need to buy votes. Also, any monitoring group will verify the results meet international standards.

Outside the government camp there is a mosaic of several groups eager to win the leftover seats in the parliament.

The most powerful alliance is headed by Gagik Zaroukyan, head of the Prosperous Armenia Party. Early on, the party was in a coalition with the Republican Party. As Prosperous Armenia began commanding more popularity, it shifted its course and headed towards the opposition, alarming the Sargsyan administration. The political discourse in Armenia is not very civil. Actually, it can be deadly. Zaroukyan was invited to the center of power to face an irate president who warned him in no uncertain terms to quit politics or else face the consequences. There was no need of a reminder. A precedent is all too familiar, that of Khachadour Soukiasyan, a successful businessman and a highly educated economist who was stripped of his mandate as an MP, his assets seized and a persecution launched. Having in mind that precedent, Zaroukyan quietly left the political scene. Now he is back in the rink, and for a short time, with Mr. Soukiasyan at his side, in his coalition. (The latter has since dropped out again, demonstrating how fragile and unstable the coalitions are.) Certainly a deal has been worked out with the ruling party and red lines must have been drawn, although publically the president announced that he has not greeted Mr. Zaroukyan’s return to politics with any particular joy.

There are four parties and one “movement,” which have joined the Zaroukyan alliance. Among the parties involved are two traditional political parties, the Hunchakyan and Ramgavar (ADL) as the alliance is interested in involving diasporan forces in the process. In fact, this time around, the diaspora is a silent partner in the elections without any voters, as all the groups have demonstrated particular interest in that front.

There are more than 500,000 immigrants from Armenia in California. It can safely be assumed that 95 percent of these expats are dead-set against the regime. On the contrary, Zaroukyan enjoys popularity because of his generous contributions to many charitable causes and especially his sponsoring of the Olympic team in Armenia, which has brought in several medals.

It is the hallmark of most oligarchs to rob the country, amass assets and move their assets overseas, because hey have no confidence in the system which they have created.

Zaroukyan and Soukiasyan deserve some credit for the fact that they are still in Armenia, and they employ thousands of people and pay taxes.

Another celebrity-studded alliance is headed by Vartan Oskanian and Seyran Ohanyan, former foreign minister and defense minister, respectively, who are joined by Victor Dallakyan.

While the goal of this alliance is regime change — and they are very vocal on that score — the public is skeptical of their honesty and motives and they raise a legitimate question: You have cooperated with the current regime for a long time and on positions of power, if you intended to achieve something, why didn’t you act then?

Another alliance is headed by Nikol Pashinyan, a former prominent member (and defector) of the Armenian National Congress. For a long time, he has served as Levon Ter-Petrosian’s attack dog, both in political rallies and the media. He has a reputation of dropping the political discourse in the gutter. His alliance is called Yelk (egress). He is joined by Edmond Maroukyan and former Prime Minister Aram Z. Sargsyan, brother of the assassinated Prime Minister Vazken Sargsyan.

Levon Ter-Petrosian’s Armenian National Congress has lost its former luster and power by defections. The first president continues to head the political movement and with a few wise maneuvers, he can garner 5 percent of the votes, with the tacit goodwill of the current administration.

Raffi Hovannisian at one time was the hope for the youth. The modern organization of his Heritage Party inspired young voters that he was capable of introducing western values and practices in Armenia’s political system. At this time, the party is in disarray.

The ARF (Dashnag) Party is going it alone. Traditionally the party has been able to elect five to six members to the parliament. But during the recent negotiations, the party has held its expectations too high, asking for 11 seats. The reason the party has decided to go it alone was the loss of popularity in joining into a coalition with the ruling party, which also angered party groups in different countries.

But still the party is in tandem with the ruling party and has sold the government a bill of goods, assuring them it can deliver the diaspora.

The leaders of the Republican Party will experience a rude awakening because of new developments in the diaspora. Indeed, Oskanian’s coalition has a firm grip through the Civilnet of Celebrity Diplomacy. Recently that movement held a well-publicized symposium at the University of Southern California (USC). Among the featured speakers were Atom Egoyan, Arsinée Khanjian, Serj Tankian, Eric Nazarian and Vahe Berberian, who propose to monitor the elections and after that, to participate in the democratization of the country, within the parameters of an interested party. They are not only celebrities in their own particular fields, but they are well versed in Armenia’s politics. Their actions in a way marginalized the existing power structure in the diaspora.

As we can see, there is quite a colorful political panorama, which promises change in Armenia’s plight.

The elections will demonstrate whether the country will consolidate the oligarchy or pick democracy. All one can expect is to see that change in a positive way.