Will a Peace Treaty Be Signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

– Termination of the EU monitoring mission on the borders of Azerbaijan and Armenia (which faces strong public opposition);

– Demand for the dissolution of the Minsk Group, a body created by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe to resolve the Karabakh conflict and which has nothing to do with the current peace agreement between the two countries;

– Limitation on Armenia’s armaments – Baku is demanding a limitation on Armenia’s weapons, while it itself is making multi-billion-dollar arms purchases, several times more than Armenia’s spending on arms;

– And finally, the demand from the Armenian government to “suppress revanchist tendencies in Armenia”!!!, a demand that cannot be described other than the emanation of an unbalanced mind.

In addition to spreading false news about the state of Armenia’s armaments, Baku also spreads false news on delivery of weapons from Iran to Armenia. However, the weapons that reach Armenia from Iran are weapons purchased by Armenia from India, concerning which Iran does not create obstacles to their passage to Armenia.

Given the foregoing and the risky concessions that Pashinyan has made to Baku, his approval rating among Armenians in Armenia and the diaspora has descended to a minimum. The government does not even dare to make the text of the peace treaty public.

What Is Azerbaijan Really After?

There are several reasons for Azerbaijani Prime Minister Ilham Aliyev’s abnormal behavior, all of which fit into the logic of the sinister Russian-Turkish plan for the so-called Zangezur corridor.

First: Baku is trying to repay its political debt to Russia, i.e. the price of seizing Karabakh with Russia’s permission and tacit silence, by opening the so-called Zangezur corridor (Meghri crossing) and placing it at Russia’s disposal. This, according to Baku and Moscow, should be done by exerting maximum pressure on the Pashinyan government and forcing it to cede the Syunik region or, ultimately, by militarily occupation of the region.

However, there is another important reason: the fear of losing its superior military-economic position over a neighbor towards which it spares no effort to sow hatred, humiliate and weaken it to the point of wiping it off the map.

However, the global situation has changed significantly compared to the time of the 44-day war. Armenia has gained important military-political partners, Iran has noticeably focused more attention to the preservation the Syunik region and constantly emphasizes the inviolability of international borders. On the other hand, Europe and the United States are also monitoring the situation and directly or indirectly warn Baku not to make any mistakes. Aliyev, however, still lives under the illusion that he can pressure Armenia forever and without hindrance and can demand and extract new concessions from the Pashinyan government. Baku has in fact lost the game, but still does not give up fruitless attempts to preserve what it has – military-economic superiority over Armenia.

Aliyev knows that a peace treaty with Armenia would stabilize the situation in latter’s favor, will allow it quickly rebuild its economy and army, and achieve some degree of military balance between the two countries, a vision that has become Aliyev’s nightmare, because then the entire geopolitical picture of the region would change.

Finally, the Baku regime, as an authoritarian state, is afraid of having an Armenia in its neighborhood which is moving towards democracy, towards respect for human rights and a competitive economy. Baku will almost certainly do anything to disrupt Armenia’s progress towards democracy and a rule-of-law system and the best way to do this is to maintain a state of war with Armenia.

Temporary Reopening of the Armenia-Turkey Border Crossing

As we know, negotiations have been underway for years between representatives of Armenia and Turkey to reopen the Armenia-Turkey border, which has been closed since 1991, that is, since the First Karabakh War, but the progress is slow and cumbersome. According to the agreement of the parties, the crossing is used only for the passage of humanitarian aid, as was the case in the days after the devastating earthquake in Turkey in February 2023, when the Armenian relief team used this crossing to enter Turkey. Recently, the crossing was opened for ten days after the Armenian government decided to send aid to Syria. Each time, after such an event, the crossing is closed again.

Political experts believe that the crossing will eventually open as the global situation changes, but at present (mainly) due to the opposition of Azerbaijan, the Turkish government refuses to open it. Regarding the recent opening, Azerbaijani governmental and non-governmental authorities have made a big fuss and even criticized the elder brother with stinging attacks for not informing Baku about the (even temporary) opening of the border with Armenia. The Turkish Foreign Ministry in turn responded by stating that the accusation was unfounded and that the matter had been notified to the Azerbaijani authorities before, thus dismissing the accusation.

Azerbaijan is afraid of any political-diplomatic rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia, because it is worried that its importance to Turkey will decrease and, conversely, Armenia will become more important. Azerbaijan is making every effort to ensure that Armenia is always under blockade and isolated.

It is worth noting that the United States and the European Union welcomed the opening of the border between Armenia and Turkey. The European Union finds it important that relations between Armenia and Turkey, both of which are at different stages of accession to EU, be mended as soon as possible.

The Islamic Republic’s Current Position in the South Caucasus

In recent times, the political-diplomatic apparatus of the Islamic Republic has become more active in the South Caucasus. Last January, Ali Akbar Ahmadian, a senior security official of the Islamic Republic, visited Baku and Yerevan and, among other issues, emphasized Iran’s position on the inviolability of internationally recognized borders.

Just recently, Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian Foreign Minister, travelled to Yerevan, probably out of concern about the Aliyev regime’s moves and the possibility of a new conflict. While meeting with Mr. Pashinyan and other senior Armenian officials, he conveyed the same message to his audience (Baku and Yerevan) and supported the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace agreement.

During the official visit of the Islamic Republic’s foreign minister to Yerevan, the Armenian translation of the book The Power of Negotiation, by Abbas Araghchi, was unveiled. At the presentation ceremony, held at the Armenian Foreign Ministry in the presence of Ararat Mirzoyan, the Armenian foreign minister, Mehdi Sobhani, the ambassador of the Islamic Republic to Armenia and Araghchi, the ambassador introduced and explained the content of the book, stating that the purpose of translating this book was to provide first-hand experiences of negotiation techniques for diplomats and students of international relations.

After leaving Armenia, Araghchi released a video of his trip to Armenia and his meetings, which, according to him, were full of good and positive experiences.

Let us not forget that in the heat of the 44-day Karabakh war, Araghchi traveled to Baku and Yerevan as a peace mediator on behalf of the Islamic Republic, a mission that did not produce a result. It is worth mentioning that in Baku, when he met Aliyev, he congratulated him on “the retaking of the occupied territories” thus violating principles of mediation (https://parsi.euronews.com/2020/10/29/baku-says-iran-envoy-congratulated-azerbaijan-army-victories-and-paid-tribute-to-martyrs).

Increasing Tension between the Islamic Republic and the United States

In recent days, there has been a lot of rhetoric in American and Israeli circles about war and an attack on the Islamic Republic. With the intensification of mutual threats between Iran and the United States, the possibility of a war in the region has increased. In a possible scenario, the territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan is considered a suitable platform for carrying out military operations against Iran. Recently, the Israeli newspaper Jerusalem Post published news about the formation of an alliance between Israel, Azerbaijan, and the United States. The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office also confirmed the news.

From the perspective of some political commentators, the announcement of a plan to strengthen the “Israel-Azerbaijan-US alliance” by the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office pursues several goals: 1. Using the territory of Azerbaijan to attack Iran. The possibility of such a scenario from the perspective of Israel and Baku increases the importance and value of Azerbaijan for the United States. 2. Receiving weapons from the United States to heighten military capability in the region and possibly use them against Armenia.

The question arises whether Baku will participate in the offensive operation itself or will it only provide its territory to Israel for an attack?

The Israeli lobby in the United States is working hard for Azerbaijan and is trying to repeal Section 907 of the USA Freedom Act, which prohibits the delivery of weapons to Azerbaijan because it could use these weapons against Armenia, and which, if lifted, would also allow the use of these weapons against Iran.

In any case, the best way to prevent a disaster or catastrophe that may arise due to the mismanagement of those in power is to try to prevent it before it happens. Armenia is perhaps the most interested party in preventing the war. This is where an opportunity arises for Armenian leaders that, if used optimally, could create a strong security guarantee for it. It is essential for Armenia that Iran is stable, but free of unnecessary tensions with the West.

Armenia’s Strategic Position between the Islamic Republic and the United States

A number of prominent Armenian commentators and political experts, such as Stepan Grigoryan, head of the Analytical Center for the Study of Globalization and Regional Cooperation, encourage the Armenian government that, given Armenia’s good relations with the Islamic Republic and the United States, it offer both countries the opportunity to meet for direct negotiations on Armenian soil. Although the Islamic Republic and the United States are negotiating indirectly (ostensibly in Oman), in Armenia they practically face each other. Armenia is a place where their strategic interests intersect. Armenian leaders should free themselves from the passivity and timidity caused by a defeat and confidently take bold diplomatic steps. No one can blame Armenia for doing such a move. On the contrary, such a move would certainly be approved by the European Union, France, Germany, Greece and many other countries, and most likely by the United States itself, because the United States is willing to enter into direct negotiations with Iran.

It is, of course, not clear how the Islamic Republic will react, but such a move, if the Armenian government takes the initiative and steps forward, would be an opportunity that the leaders of the Islamic Republic should not miss. The current deadlock and the highly tense atmosphere that exists between the Islamic Republic on the one hand and the United States and Israel on the other and which could lead to an explosion any moment, can only be resolved through dialogue and negotiation.

Currently, there are almost regular meetings and contacts between the embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the French Ambassador in Yerevan, and it seems that the European Union, through the French Ambassador, has been able to convince the Islamic Republic that the EU’s assistance to Armenia is solely to strengthen the country’s military-economic strength against possible aggression by Baku, which is something that is in Iran’s interest as well. The government of the Islamic Republic has also received assurances as stated by its ambassador in Armenia that the presence of the West, including the United States, in Armenia will not be against Iran’s interests.

EU Membership Process

On March 26, the Armenian Parliament approved the draft of the EU accession process after the second reading. Out of 106 deputies, 67 voted in favor and 7 voted against, while the rest abstained or did not participate in the vote. The aforementioned draft was prepared at the initiative of Armenian civil-political non-governmental organizations by a successful collection of signatures and submitted to the parliament.

A joint statement issued by two European Parliament officials, Nils Osakov, Chair of the Council for Relations with the South Caucasus, and Miriam Lexmann, the European Parliament’s Standing Rapporteur on Armenia, states, among other things (https://groong.org/news/msg165670.html):

“Today’s adoption of the draft EU accession agreement by the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia in second and final reading, which marks the result of a citizens’ initiative by Armenian citizens and marks the start of the process of Armenia’s accession to the European Union, marks another important step in the very strong EU-Armenia relations. We attach importance to the decision and welcome it as another clear commitment to shared values ​​and the path of democracy by Armenia. According to Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union, any European country may apply for membership of the European Union, provided that it complies with the Copenhagen criteria and the principles of democracy, respects fundamental freedoms and human rights and minorities, and upholds the rule of law.

“We welcome the intention of the Armenian government to examine the roadmap with the EU and to consult with … We look forward to a future referendum. We recall that accession to the European Union is a complex, long-term and merit-based process and stand ready to continue supporting Armenia in its reform efforts, in particular on the basis of the EU-Armenia Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement.”

The representatives also stated in the joint statement: “We encourage the Commission, the High Representative/Vice-President of the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union to actively support Armenia’s desire to enhance cooperation with the European Union in all its dimensions and its European aspirations.”

(This article has previously been published in Persian at https://kayhan.london/1404/01/13/373681/)