Armenia’s Destiny Is Up for Grabs Without Its Input

Following Russia’s action, Tehran opened a consulate in Kapan, in the south, to better monitor the situation.

These actions would have been more reassuring had Russia carried out its peacekeeping mission in Karabakh with the same vigor it does in Syunik. Indeed, recent weeks have witnessed border clashes between Azerbaijani and Karabakh forces, leaving four dead and more than 20 wounded. When the Armenian side complained about the inaction of the Russian peacekeeping force, the latter revealed that they have no mandate to restrain Azerbaijan through military force. They can use force only in self-defense.

Although the aggression came from the Azerbaijani side, Mr. Çavusoglu has warned Armenians to stop the provocations! The besieged Armenian forces have certainly no motivation to create a provocation, given the fact that they are vastly outnumbered. Predictably and infuriatingly, Washington and the European Union have called on both parties to use restraint.

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov has called for the removal of Armenian forces from Azerbaijani territory. Helpfully, Armen Grigoryan, the chief of Armenia’s Security Council, has since announced that Armenian units have left Karabakh. The only forces remaining are members of the Karabakh defense forces, which Azerbaijan refuses to recognize. The mere fact of Azerbaijani provocations and murderous raids justify the retention of Karabakh defense forces to prevent a pogrom, similar to the ones carried out by the Azerbaijani army in Baku and Sumgait in 1990.

Azerbaijan refuses to abide by the November 9, 2020 ceasefire declaration which asks for the release of Armenian prisoners of war (POWs) but it blames the Armenian side for delinquency. On the other hand, Baku has already built an alternative route to Karabakh, to gain control over the Armenians reaching Karabakh, though that new road should have been planned within three years of the signing of the declaration and built only after the approval of all  three signatories. The use of that corridor leaves gas and power lines outside the control of the peacekeepers and thus the lives of the Karabakh people can be easily manipulated by the Azerbaijani overlords. This is not an abstract danger; Azerbaijan indeed cut off gas supplies to Karabakh twice in March, after particularly bad snowstorms.

While the military provocations against Armenia and Karabakh continue by the leadership in Baku, the latter’s rhetoric is no less threatening. Karabakh’s Foreign Minister David Babayan, responding to President Aliyev’s recent comments, said, “Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said in his interview in Azerbaijan the Armenians living in Karabakh would have neither status nor independence, nor any special privileges. First of all I want to thank Mr. Aliyev for his sincerity. Indeed, neither Azerbaijan or its leadership have ever misled or deceived anyone on their plans for Artsakh. Secondly, indeed, Karabakh will not have anything as part of Azerbaijan because there will be no Karabakh at all. Moreover, for Artsakh itself, any status within Azerbaijan is unacceptable. How could Jews have any kind of administrative territorial status within Nazi Germany?”

Mr. Aliyev’s statement not only threatens Armenians in Karabakh, but it defies the international community. Indeed, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group still maintains that the Karabakh status has not yet determined through peaceful negotiations — the only way to arrive at a solution. Russia, as a co-chair of the Minsk Group, refuses to cooperate with the other co-chairs, France and the US, thereby playing into Azerbaijani (and thereby Turkish) hands.

Time is running out for Turkey and Azerbaijan. Both want to seal historic deals with Armenia. Turkey wants to legitimize the Treaty of Kars of 1921, which is on shaky legal grounds, while Azerbaijan is after a slice of Armenian territory to link with Nakhichevan and compromise Armenia’s sovereignty in perpetuity.

Armenia is going through hard times. Its enemies are many and friends are rare while lip service is in abundance.