‘Erdogan Should Be Very, Very Worried’: What the Biden Presidency Means for Turkey

Biden has pledged to recognize the Armenian genocide, a hugely contentious issue for Turkey and one which U.S. presidents have avoided acknowledging for a century. Amid the turmoil of World War I, as many as 1.5 million Armenian civilians were expelled or killed by what was then the Ottoman Empire. No government of Turkey has ever acknowledged it as a genocide. Turkey and Armenia do not have diplomatic relations.

Democratic and Republican lawmakers alike have supported sanctions over both Turkey’s military assaults on the Kurds, viewed by Ankara as terrorists, and its buying and testing of the Russian S-400 missile defense system. Sanctions would be a devastating blow to Turkey’s already suffering economy.

For its part, Turkey has threatened retaliation for any sanctions, including hamstringing the Americans over the highly strategic Incirlik air base. Erdogan has previously slammed Biden for being an “interventionist.”

Still, Erdogan spokesman Ibrahim Kalin on Wednesday said Turkey believes it can have a “good and positive agenda” with a Biden administration, and called any punishment for its S-400 purchase “counterproductive.”

Between Russia and a hard place 

Both the U.S. and Europe have become “increasingly frustrated” with Erdogan’s emboldened foreign interventions and “erratic” behavior toward allies and adversaries alike, said Agathe Demarais, global forecasting director at the at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

“This is a dangerous path,” she said. “The incoming Biden administration is likely to take a much tougher stance on Turkey than Donald Trump has done.”

But that comes with its own set of risks to the U.S. — namely, that punishing an ally like Turkey only pushes it further into the arms of Russia.

“The U.S. would be shooting itself in the foot… if placed under stringent U.S. sanctions, Turkey would double down on its attempts to deepen its relations with Russia and Iran,” Demarais said.

With the second-largest military in NATO and strategic access to American operations in the Middle East, Turkey is a partner many believe the U.S. can’t afford to lose to an adversary.

Not everyone sees a dire future as a foregone conclusion for Washington and Ankara.

Turkey is “mega strategic” for the U.S. and Europe, stressed Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets strategist at Bluebay Asset Management. Because of this, he expects that “Biden will work overtime to try and improve relations with Turkey and bring the country back into the Western fold.”

“I think it is important to remember that the two biggest risks to the U.S. are China and Russia,” Ash said. ”‘Winning’ Turkey back from Russia would be a huge win for Biden, and I think they will focus on that.”

It’s also worth noting that the relationship during Trump’s tenure wasn’t always rosy. In August of 2018, Trump threatened sanctions on Turkey over its detention of an American pastor — a threat that sent the Turkish lira to its then-lowest level ever against the dollar and intensified its deepening economic crisis.

Now, with its currency at record lows, high inflation and unemployment exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic, any clashes with the U.S. that risk sanctions are even more perilous for the Turkish economy.

Investors and regional analysts will be watching the Biden-Erdogan dynamic over the coming months to see whether, in the words of Turkish academic Ahmed Alioglu, “Turkey should get ready for a rocky four years ahead.”