Azerbaijan: The Undesirable Neighbor of the Caucasus

However, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, ignoring all calls to dump Turkey from the NATO alliance, extended a fig leaf to Ankara, by asking them to leave the system inoperable for the time being, to get a dispensation from sanctions. That is why those systems may end up in Nakhijevan, a few miles from Armenia’s capital, Yerevan. Over time, Erdogan has learned that his brinksmanship with fellow NATO members will pay off and he will be able to have his cake and eat it too.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan has problems with its Georgian neighbors. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the two countries had been cooperating with each other to bypass Armenia regionally. Former President Mikheil Saakashvili, during a visit to Baku, had announced that Azerbaijan’s enemy is also Georgia’s enemy. At this time, however, although the Tbilisi government has been trying to maintain a coopererative policy by participating in military drills involving Turkey and Azerbaijan, it has begun to demonstrate some unease, because of Azerbaijan’s territorial claims and Turkey’s overwhelming presence in Ajaria, a region of Georgia.

The Front News outlet had reported recently that Azerbaijan had stationed its forces in the area of Red Bridge, on the Georgian side of the land. Azerbaijan has also banned Georgian pilgrims from visiting David Gareja monastery complex, which remains a contested historic site between the two countries. Adding insult to injury, the Azerbaijani Academy of Science has claimed that the southeast corner of Georgia is Azerbaijani territory. The Tbilisi government has been trying to solve the problems quietly but to no avail. During the 2008 war between Georgia and Russia, the Tbilisi government had pinned its hopes on the US and NATO, which offered little more than lip service. Therefore, the Georgians know they will be on their own should the conflict with Azerbaijan intensify.

Georgia is also alarmed that the port city of Batumi is gradually becoming an Azerbaijani-Turkish town. Turkey has heavily invested in the region’s economic infrastructure, particularly in the tourism industry.

Incidentally, the Treaty of Kars of 1921 stipulated that Turkey should be entitled to free transport of goods and people without any customs duties. Turkey has revived that claim after the fall of the USSR by colonizing Georgia’s Ajarian province, while denying the same right to Armenia, which is promised the same right in the same treaty, in Turkey.

Recently, Tbilisi has moderated its policy with regards to Yerevan, not only expecting better treatment from the Pashinyan government, but also discovering that the Turkish-Azerbaijani embrace has become too suffocating. Yerevan has been mitigating some of the tensions driving Tbilisi and Moscow apart.

Armenia’s government also continues to serve as a backchannel diplomatic track with Moscow to solve some transit issues.

After assuming power, Pashinyan took his maiden trip out of the country to Georgia and that may have paid off well.

Another feather in his administration’s cap is luring Iran to partner with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) states. For a long time, Moscow was trying to lure other neighboring countries to cooperate with that economic union. Indeed, Armenia’s prime minister has invited President Hassan Rouhani, who will visit Yerevan in turn on October 1, to participate in the Eurasian Economic Council meeting. Thus, Yerevan has been serving as a conduit to attract other partners to that economic club. That also sits well with Moscow.

Stirring problems with Georgia and Iran, Azerbaijan has become a pariah nation regionally. Its relations with Armenia have been tense since the Karabakh war, to say the least.

The Baku government has been emboldened by its association with Ankara and that situation does not promise a peaceful outcome in  the foreseeable future for the Caucasus.