The global competition among China, Russia, and the United States continues to intensify, encompassing various regions around the world. One of the most striking examples of this is the interaction — more accurately, the rivalry — of these superpowers with the countries of Central Asia. In just the past six months, there have been fundamental developments in the region that demonstrate the zenith of this competition and diplomatic activity, and this has important implications for the South Caucasus.
Central Asia is an exceptionally interesting region, as its five states border Iran, Russia, Afghanistan, China, Pakistan and others. Despite certain internal challenges, the region continues to hold significant strategic importance. Moreover, considering that the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan has somewhat reduced US influence in the region, it has created an opportunity for Russia and China to expand their tools and presence there.
Russia has traditionally maintained close relations with the Central Asian states, given their shared historical past and existence within a single political entity. However, China has also made a strong bid to increase its influence in this region, which it views as vital to its national interests. Therefore, taking into account the organic connection between Central Asia and the South Caucasus, as well as their commonalities and global trade routes, one can draw certain conclusions about the possible future of Armenia and the South Caucasus based on developments unfolding in Central Asia, especially after the implementation of the “Trump route” as a possible trade route connecting China, Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and the EU.
In June 2025, Chinese President Xi Jinping went to Kazakhstan to attend the second China–Central Asia Summit, a high-stakes diplomatic gathering aimed at deepening Beijing’s economic and strategic ties with the region. On October 9 Vladimir Putin took part in the second Russia-Central Asia Summit, held in Tajikistan’s capital, Dushanbe. The discussion centered on expanding cooperation between Russia and the states of the region across a range of areas, including trade, economic, financial, industrial, logistics, and energy ties. Particular attention was paid to strengthening regional security in light of the tense situations in Afghanistan and the Middle East. The meeting concluded with the adoption of a final communiqué and a joint action plan for 2025–2027. And finally, on November 6, the Central Asian presidents gathered in Washington, DC, to meet President Trump and deepen strategic ties between Central Asia and the US.
Such intensity of activity indicates that the Eurasian region has become a major arena of competition among global powers. Of course, the South Caucasus states are still far from presenting a unified position — there remain unresolved issues between Armenia and Azerbaijan, while Georgia continues to face its own challenges with Russia. Nonetheless, competition in the region is evident, not so much in a collective regional context, but rather in terms of each global power working separately with individual states.
The recent cooling phase in Russia-Azerbaijan relations appears to have been overcome, as evidenced by the recent meeting between the two countries’ leaders. Russia’s policy toward Armenia remains relatively stable, and in Russo-Georgian relations, there have been some positive developments. For its part, China has signed strategic partnership agreements with Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia.
