In light of the developments around Iran during the past week, it is extremely important to also examine Azerbaijan’s role and its potential significance in a possible Iran–US/Israel conflict, as it could become an important factor in a broader global confrontation.
The alleged launch of drones by Iran in the direction of Azerbaijan has become a serious issue in bilateral relations. Iran has denied carrying out any action against Azerbaijan. As for Baku, President Aliyev has described the incident as a hostile act by Iran against Azerbaijan. In other words, Azerbaijan either does not believe — or does not wish to believe — Iran’s denial.
These developments have prompted Azerbaijan to place its armed forces on a higher level of readiness. This creates additional tension not only around Iran but also throughout the South Caucasus, a region that, until now, had largely managed to avoid becoming directly involved in such confrontations.
Regarding Azerbaijan, it appears that Baku is currently attempting to increase its strategic value both for Iran and for the US–Israel alliance. Azerbaijan is positioning itself as an important regional actor in ongoing geopolitical developments, pursuing its own strategic calculations. Baku presents itself as the strongest player in the South Caucasus and emphasizes that it is a state sharing a land border with Iran.
Under these circumstances, it is clear that Iran should work with Baku to ensure that Azerbaijan does not become a potential staging ground for actions against Iran. Conversely, Israel and the United States will likely seek closer cooperation with Azerbaijan in order to potentially utilize its infrastructure and territory in their confrontation with Iran.
The tightening of the strategic ring around Iran has been a priority of American policy for decades, and Iranian leaders naturally understand this, including the possibility that Baku could be drawn into an anti-Iran coalition.
