Pressure on Iran Intensifies

As for a change of power or a revolution, conditions that could have enabled such a development existed weeks earlier, when mass protests were taking place across Iran. At that time, President Trump chose not to take any action and instead waited to see how events would unfold. Undoubtedly, this decision was made on the basis of careful political calculations and assessments of intelligence information.

Of course, the key question remains what objective the United States is pursuing with regard to Iran: whether it is seeking the overthrow of the current authorities, merely attempting to bring them to the negotiating table, or contemplating Iran’s possible fragmentation along the lines of Iraq or Syria. The coming developments will provide answers to these questions. However, it should be taken into account that if the Trump administration had aimed to overthrow the current authorities, such an opportunity may have presented itself during the period of mass protests, when it appeared that demonstrators were quite close to achieving a change of power. The administration’s decision not to intervene at that moment suggests that its objective was somewhat different from simply pursuing a revolutionary change of power in Iran.

At present, developments around Iran appear to have somewhat receded into the background of the international news agenda due to the Jeffrey Epstein scandal in the United States. Leading media outlets are more focused on this issue than on the possibility of war with Iran or negotiations. Nevertheless, the New York Times reported that talks between the United States and Iran are expected to take place in the coming days, which could bring a degree of clarity to this highly volatile situation.

Naturally, the issue that concerns us most is what might happen in the South Caucasus in the event of a large-scale war. In reality, beyond the risks already present in the South Caucasus — discussed in my previous article — there is another important factor that deserves attention: the strengthening of Turkey’s position in the region. Historically, Russia and Iran have served as counterweights to Turkey in the South Caucasus, limiting Ankara’s role and influence and preventing more active Turkish involvement, including in the context of the absence of Armenian–Turkish relations.

Today, however, international politics appears to be moving in a direction where such counterweights to Turkey in the South Caucasus are diminishing. Iran finds itself in a complex domestic and foreign policy situation and is likely to focus primarily on confronting the United States and Israel rather than advancing its interests in the South Caucasus or elsewhere due to limited resources on the ground. The same applies to Russia, where no resolution to the Ukrainian crisis is in sight, draining Moscow’s resources and limiting its ability to consolidate its position in the South Caucasus.

As a result, it can be stated that for the first time in modern history, Turkey is emerging as the principal player in the South Caucasus, with all the political, economic, and geopolitical consequences that this entails. It is evident that Turkey is not only beginning to take advantage of this historical opportunity but is already doing so in full.