Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev’s surprise rhetorical attack on Armenia is raising doubts that a peace deal between Baku and Yerevan can be reached anytime soon.
Both sides in recent months had given indications that the peace process was making progress and a settlement could be close at hand. But then Aliyev, in a January 7 interview with Azerbaijani journalists, scrambled expectations, launching a verbal broadside against Armenia and its leaders, characterizing the country as a “fascist state.” In all, Aliyev used the term fascist or fascism in connection with Armenia over 10 times during the interview.
“Fascism must be eradicated. It will either be eradicated by Armenia’s leadership or by us. There is no other way,” he stated.
Aliyev’s belligerent comments come at a sensitive time for Azerbaijan. Bilateral relations between Baku and its strongest ally in the region, Russia, have nosedived in recent weeks following the accidental shootdown by Russian air defenses of a civilian Azerbaijani airliner. Concurrently, Armenia of late has taken significant steps to improve its relations with the European Union and United States, bolstering the country’s security position via arms sales and joint exercises.
Armenian officials have been on the strategic defensive since Baku inflicted a decisive defeat on the Armenian military in late 2023 to regain full control of the Nagorno-Karabakh territory. Since then, the two sides have engaged in stop-and-go negotiations on a peace treaty. Under the present circumstances, Aliyev’s January 7 remarks may reflect a sense of concern that Baku’s strategic advantage in its dealings with Armenia is eroding or could start to erode soon.
A hint of concern could be seen in Aliyev’s criticism of Western arms sales to Armenia. “We see that both Armenia itself and its new patrons do not share this goal [peace],” he said. “They are driven by ideas of revenge, and Armenia has become a source of threat to the region.”