As Ukraine Crisis Unfolds, Azerbaijan Pivots Closer to Russia

This has long been more myth than reality. In recent years, both Azerbaijan’s trade and the favors it offers Iran have been on the upswing. The same has been true with Russia. Azerbaijan’s lavish caviar diplomacy might obscure both facts in the US and Europe, but Baku’s agreements with Tehran and Moscow speak for themselves.

Now, all pretenses are off.

As Russian forces rolled into Ukraine, the Kremlin’s press agency TASS reported that Putin and Aliyev would soon agree to “a declaration on allied cooperation that will bring the ties between Russia and Azerbaijan to the level of allied relations.” It did not take long. Early on Tuesday, February 22, Aliyev became the first foreign leader to pay homage to Putin after the Russian leader’s rambling Ukraine speech in which he announced the start of hostilities and denounced the basis of Ukrainian sovereignty. The two subsequently formalized their agreement in Moscow.

Former Treasury Department Assistant Secretary Marshall Billingslea is right. The Biden administration could have already imposed sanctions but does not appear to have had the executive orders prepared. In essence, as the White House hand-wrings, backtracks, and prevaricates, Russia projects strength and collects chits of influence far more than what it otherwise might.

Azerbaijan is now firmly in the Kremlin’s camp. To accept its largesse is to be indirectly on Moscow’s payroll. It is time the US both recognize the cost of inaction and understand that the battle for influence is not limited to Ukraine but extends to the South Caucasus and regions of what Putin considers his “near abroad” as the aging Russian leader seeks to reconstitute the Soviet Union.

Michael Rubin (@mrubin1971) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner‘s Beltway Confidential. He is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.