Days ago, after three years of silence, the US and Russian interacted for the first time at the highest level. This long-awaited event was closely watched by nations affected by the ongoing brutal war between Russia and Ukraine, in which the latter received from the Biden administration.
US President Donald Trump’s stance on this issue is multifaceted and requires consideration from various angles. Domestically, he opposes spending billions on Ukraine and prolonging the war. From a foreign policy viewpoint, the main objective of his administration has been to counter China, with a key strategy being to isolate it from Russia or at least make Russia neutral. However, this goal has been complicated by US sanctions against Russia, which have driven the latter to rely more heavily on China for goods, products, technology and resources. Trump announced a likely meeting in Saudi Arabia, an interesting choice given numerous alternatives like India, Hungary, Turkey, the UAE or other countries which enjoy good relations with both Russia and the US.
Such a decision highlights the US goal of countering China, as Saudi Arabia wields considerable influence over Russia and has strong ties with it. Additionally, while Saudi Arabia was a strategic ally of the US and a key opponent of Iran, it recently established diplomatic relations with Iran through China’s mediation, underscoring China’s rising influence in global affairs, particularly in the Middle East. China’s increasing influence in the Middle East, Asia, and Eurasia poses a challenge for Moscow too. While their interests align against Washington’s anti-Russian and anti-Chinese stance, it’s difficult to believe that Russia does not see China as its primary competitor in Africa and, more critically, in the Middle East and Central Asia, which are vital regions for Russian interests. To reduce Chinese influence over the Saudis, the US might need some support from Russia too.
The phone conversation between the US and Russian presidents lasted approximately 1.5 hours, covering various topics, including trade partnerships between the two countries. For trade to proceed, Washington would need to lift the sanctions imposed by the Biden administration. In fact, Trump is the only US leader with significant influence over both Ukraine and Russia. While his influence on Kyiv is evident, his leverage over Moscow comes in the form of approximately 25,000 sanctions, which he can use as a bargaining tool in negotiating a potential peace treaty with Ukraine. Of course not all of them will be lifted but some significant amount of sanctions might be lifted if the deal is done. For comparison, there are about 8000 sanctions imposed on Iran since the Iranian revolution in 1979.
During the conversation, topics such as the Middle East settlement and the Iranian nuclear program were discussed according to the official statement. This means there is a global understanding between the two on these important issues.
Moreover, the president of Russia invited President Trump to visit Moscow and expressed his willingness to host American officials in Russia to work on areas of mutual interest, including the Ukrainian settlement. President Vladimir Putin and Trump agreed to continue personal contacts, including arranging face-to-face meetings. It cannot be ruled out that the next meeting after Saudi Arabia may take place in Moscow.
