Where is Serzh Sargsyan?

But Vigen Sargsyan said there was no talk of jettisoning Serzh Sargsyan as party leader. At a November press conference, he said that big decisions will be made at the party congress in the spring.

Still Escaping Prosecution – for Now

Despite the central role that Sargsyan played in the protest narrative, since taking office Pashinyan has been relatively quiet about his predecessor, instead aiming most of his fire at other former officials – most notably another former president, Robert Kocharyan.

The fact that Sargsyan has remained untouched has spurred speculation about a potential deal that he may have made with Pashinyan when he resigned and cleared a path for Pashinyan to take his place. But the source close to Sargsyan denied that: “There were no deals made. Nothing happened except for what has happened in public,” the source said.

At a press conference in December, Pashinyan was asked why there had not yet been any criminal charges filed against Sargsyan. “That is yet more proof that investigative bodies don’t work based on my announcements, but instead based on data they have,” Pashinyan answered. (That assertion may be debatable, as a growing body evidence has emerged that Pashinyan has in fact been personally involved in decisions about criminal cases against Kocharyan.)

Many of Sargsyan’s associates and family members have not been as lucky, and have been targeted by investigations under the new government. In September, Pashinyan took aim at Sargsyan’s brother, Alexander (commonly known as “Sashik”). “Sashik Sargsyan has $30 million in one Armenian bank alone,” Pashinyan said, and demanded that Sargsyan voluntarily return the money to the state treasury. In November, Sashik Sargsyan complied, and agreed to hand over the $30 million to the state.

In the summer, Armenian law enforcement raided the home of a nephew of Sargsyan’s, Narek Sargsyan, discovering large caches of drugs and weapons. Narek Sargsyan fled the country but in December he was arrested in Prague; when asked to produce identification he presented a Guatemalan passport under the name “Franklin Gonzalez.” The authorities also have brought charges against another nephew, Hayk Sargsyan, related to a 2007 shooting.

But for now, Sargsyan himself has been spared. “I believe there is some sense of appreciation – after all Serzh effectively handed power to Nikol. He did not use force and did not ask Russia to interfere to support him,” Emil Sanamyan, a Washington, D.C.-based Armenia analyst, told Eurasianet. “And over the years, Serzh has moved to soften government pressure on the opposition, among other things granting amnesty to Nikol” after Pashinyan was imprisoned for his role in organizing protests in 2008. “I think this is why he has avoided Nikol’s wrath so far.”

Sargsyan’s public silence also has served him well, Sanamyan said, in contrast to Kocharyan, who emerged after Pashinyan’s ascent to power as an outspoken critic of the new authorities. “Serzh remained completely silent as people closest to him, as well as ex-president Kocharyan, were targeted, which tells me that Serzh is still wary of antagonizing Nikol,” Sanamyan said.

Another analyst, Yerevan-based Richard Giragosian, said there were “two equally plausible scenarios” for why Sargsyan has remained beyond the reach of the anti-corruption investigations. “First, despite the rumors, Sargsyan himself may have been smart enough to avoid any direct personal connection to ill-gotten wealth or corruption, instead relying on his bodyguard or head of security and his notorious brother to hide or safeguard his own wealth,” Giragosian told Eurasianet. “Or second, he may have been beyond the temptation of securing the wealth, driven instead by the pursuit of power over money,” a tendency he had displayed throughout his political career, he said.

Indeed, while many Armenian officials have been implicated in scandals involving offshore holdings of ill-gotten wealth, Sargsyan’s name itself has never surfaced in those reports. Sargsyan reported in official declarations that at the end of 2017 he had 26 million drams in assets, or just over $50,000.

It’s not clear how long Sargsyan will remain untouched, however. The head of the Special Investigation Service, Sasun Khachatryan, has said that Sargsyan is to be questioned over the violent breakup of protests over his election in 2008, the center of the charges against Kocharyan. “Serzh Sargsyan is an important witness,” Khachatryan said in September. “Or maybe he is not just a witness.”

(Ani Mejlumyan is a reporter based in Yerevan. Grigor Atanesian and Joshua Kucera contributed reporti