Aftermath of Armenia’s Hostage Standoff: Quest for Change Picks Up Momentum

He added that current developments in Nagorno-Karabagh conflict and absence of trust towards the authorities are two main causes for further growth of the popular unrest.

“Authorities crossed the limit of trust. Nobody believes them,” Dr. Grigoryan concluded.

Garegin Choogaszian, president of the Founding Parliament, who is in hiding deems civil disobedience is a successful mean of political struggle.

“We are sure that peaceful mass civil disobedience is the main method for the political system change,” Choogaszian said in an online interview.

But Choogaszian sees a “short window of opportunity” for authorities to understand the “open wounds” and seek an immediate treatment, as the confrontation slows down.

Richard Giragosian, director of Regional Studies Center, a Yerevan-based think tank, and a longtime critic of the government, links the government’s ability “to heed the warning signs and embrace the necessity for real reform” to the country’s stability.

“But with an obvious end to apathy, Armenian civic activists are no longer content with the egregious levels of corruption and authoritarian rule,” Giragosian added.

Regardless to the outcome of protests, the standoff itslef has already immensly influenced the country’s political envirnment.

Dr. Sergey Minasyan, a political scientist and deputy director of the Caucasus Institute, a policy think tank aimed at involving young people in the political system,  believes that Armenia’s “hybrid, semi-authoritarian” political system cannot remain the same after the crisis.

“It might either lead to a change of authorities and revolutionary processes or the authorities will go down the authoritarian path, even against their will,” he said.

Minasyan said he doubts that the authorities will make a shift towards more democratic reforms.

“I think we will have a more closed and restrained authoritarian and power tendencies,” Minasyan added. “The authorities are not ready for the level of radical reforms the society expects them to carry out.”

The Armenian Embassy in Washington did not answer questions regarding the events in Armenia, citing the heavy commitments of the ambassador.

Although the stability holds for now, serious international or domestic developments could undermine it.