On September 1, a meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin finally took place in Bishkek. The meeting was particularly significant, as it was the first meeting between the two sides following the elections held in Armenia. It is noteworthy that the two leaders agreed to meet again in the near future, this time with the Armenian prime minister traveling to Moscow.
The public portion of the meeting made it clear that one of the most contentious issues in Armenian-Russian relations remains the law adopted by Armenia concerning EU membership. It is evident that Russia wants Armenia to make a final decision regarding its foreign policy orientation and appears to be taking a very serious and principled position on this issue.
The problem is that Moscow also wants an unequivocal statement as to whether Armenia intends to join the EU, while Armenia maintains that no such agenda currently exists. It cannot be ruled out that the issue of its complete absence from the current agenda is discussed behind closed doors. Publicly, however, Russia appears to want to hear precisely this clarification from Armenia.
Moreover, during his press conference later that day, the Russian president stated that if Armenia no longer needs the presence of the Russian military base on its territory, Russia can withdraw it. Interestingly, there has not been particularly extensive public discussion in Armenia regarding this issue. However, with this statement, Putin appeared to suggest that Armenian-Russian relations should be viewed as a comprehensive package. In other words, a decision by Armenia to leave the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) could also mean the withdrawal of the Russian military base and, more broadly, a freezing of Armenian-Russian relations, as happened in the case of Georgia years ago.
It is also evident that the Armenian authorities do not want to withdraw from the EAEU. During the meeting, the Armenian prime minister reminded the Russian president that, before leaving the organization, a member state must notify the other members of its intention six months in advance, and that there is no mechanism for expelling a country from the organization. In other words, Armenia is signaling that it intends to remain in the EAEU and that there is no mechanism through which it can be forced out.
At the same time, Armenia does not want to strain its relations with the EU or repeal the law on launching the process of EU membership, as doing so would put the Armenian authorities in a difficult domestic and foreign policy position. As a result, a tense situation is developing around Armenia. On the one hand, Russia is applying pressure and demanding that Armenia hold a referendum; on the other hand, the EU has its own priorities and is broadly aligned with the Armenian authorities on different issues.
