As Armenia and Azerbaijan continue negotiations to sign a peace agreement, the restoration of communications between the two countries has become one of the hot topics in the talks. It has multiple dimensions, including issues related to passport and customs control modalities while crossing Armenian and Azerbaijani borders and the safety of passengers and cargo that will pass via Armenia and Azerbaijan.
After the military takeover of Nagorno Karabakh in September 2023, Azerbaijan dropped its demands for an extraterritorial corridor via Armenia to connect with the Nakhijevan Autonomous Republic. However, it continued to demand a passport and customs control-free regime for Azerbaijani citizens and goods that will pass via Armenia to reach Nakhijevan and vice versa. Azerbaijan also demands the involvement of third countries to ensure the security of Azerbaijani passengers and cargo, arguing that Armenia cannot provide the necessary guarantees. Azerbaijan brought these topics into center stage, discussing them during conferences, workshops, and webinars focused on Armenia-Azerbaijan relations.
Meanwhile, surprisingly, the security of Armenian passengers and cargo that will pass via Azerbaijan to reach Iran and Russia is not discussed much. This situation is bizarre, given multiple heinous crimes against the Armenian civilian population committed by Azerbaijan, which have been widely condemned by the international community. These include incidents during the 4-day war in April 2016, the 2020 Second Nagorno Karabakh war, the 2021-2022 Azerbaijani incursions into Armenia proper, the nine-month blockade of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh to the point of near-starvation, and the September 2023 military takeover of Nagorno Karabakh. During just the 24-hour Azerbaijani military attack on Nagorno Karabakh on September 19, 2023, at least 25 Armenian civilians were killed, among them five children. Dozens of civilians were wounded, including ten children, and five civilians are still missing.
Multiple war crimes against Armenians, coupled with strong anti-Armenian hate propaganda, which is, unfortunately, still widespread in Azerbaijan, are clear indications that Armenian passengers and cargo will not be able to pass through Azerbaijan to reach Iran, Russia, or other parts of Armenia without special security guarantees provided by third countries. It means that even if Armenia and Azerbaijan reach an agreement on the restoration of communication without precise modalities for security guarantees for Armenian cargo and passengers, the agreement will not be implemented in real life, as Armenians will refuse to travel via Azerbaijan and put the life of their families under the direct threat of physical abuse.
Given that the usage of Azerbaijani territory to reach Russia from Armenia either by highways or railways is a difficult task due to the complicated geographical terrain – it simply does not make sense to travel from Yerevan to Baku by railway via Nakhijevan and southern Azerbaijan and then travel an additional two hundred kilometers to reach the Azerbaijan – Russia border; the Nakhijevan Autonomous Republic would likely become the central hub for Armenian cargo and passengers to reach Iran and also the southern part of Armenia by highway and railway, circumventing the mountainous road which currently connects capital Yerevan with the Syunik region. In this context, the discussions should start at an expert level on possible ways to ensure the safety of Armenians who may travel through Nakhijevan.
Azerbaijan, given its recent behavior and ongoing rhetoric against Armenians, cannot provide realistic guarantees to Armenian cargo and passengers. The involvement of a third country or international organization is the only way to stabilize the situation and pave the way for the restoration of communications. Given the geographical location of Nakhijevan, as well as geopolitical developments of the South Caucasus, Iran, Russia, and the EU are candidates to be involved in de-conflicting this process. Russia mediated the signature of four Armenia–Azerbaijan joint statements in 2020-2022, and Moscow has friendly relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Despite the recent increase in hostile rhetoric between Armenia and Russia, Yerevan continues its membership in Russian-led organizations, and the Russian military base and border troops are located in Armenia. In its turn, Azerbaijan signed a declaration on allied interaction with Russia in February 2022. Azerbaijan serves as a transit country for Russia to reach Iran, and Azerbaijan buys Russian natural gas.
