Arms Race and Rhetoric Rage in Caucasus

Moscow’s decision to replace the aging MIG fighters at the Erebuni airbase near Yerevan offered a welcome relief for military planners in Armenia. Russia will be supplying more advanced SU-30mm aircraft which will enhance Armenia’s airpower against Azerbaijan.

According to military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer, Russia has been boosting Armenia’s military capability, not necessarily against Azerbaijan, but as part of its global plan of containing NATO and in this case, its vanguard member Turkey, which may switch sides any time. The military expert believes that Russia has no intention of getting into a war with Azerbaijan, where it has so many valuable assets. Moscow presented proof of this reluctance in the 2016 April War when Azerbaijan attacked Armenia without provocation. Felgenhauer added that he believes that with the addition of these new weapons, Armenia can wage a successful war against Azerbaijan, but those weapons must be used with caution, since Azerbaijan is equipped with Zenith missiles to which this model warplane is vulnerable.

Other analysts believe that the Kremlin’s decision to arm Armenia with that grade of military aircraft was not altogether altruistic; in fact, John Bolton’s offer to the latter to buy arms from the US was one of the motivations behind the upgrade.

The verbal agreement reached between Azeri President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Dushanbe has significantly reduced the cases of ceasefire violations along the border, but it has not eliminated them completely.

“Ceasefire violations targeting the borders of Artsakh and Armenia will continue as long as there is no peace agreement to restrain Azerbaijan,” said Maj. General Astvatsatur Petrosyan, the commander of the Eagle Bombers Squad, recently, calling for an active engagement by the neighboring countries.

“Unless there is an agreement signed by five to six nations,” he added, including Turkey, Azerbaijan, Russia, Georgia and Iran, “the situation will be fraught with hazards.”

It is mostly improbable that all those countries might come together for a common cause, and not particularly for Armenia; each has its own agenda and priorities, and Armenia most certainly figures at the bottom of their lists. They have built alliances and have developed economic projects circumventing Armenia. Only a compelling political reason may gather them together.

Armenia’s major trading partner is Russia. From all indications, it is obvious that relations with Russia have been fully restored after a shaky start. Russia frowns at Armenia’s relations with NATO but tolerates them because it is clear they will lead nowhere, whereas in the case of Georgia, tensions continue. The earlier defiance of Russia by Tbilisi cost Georgia some territorial losses but the Georgians are still defiant. Just recently, the country’s new president, Salome Zurabishvili, continuing the previous regime’s foreign policy, has announced that there is no reason for NATO to refrain from building a military base in Georgia. That is exactly the policy to whip the Kremlin into a frenzy. Should there be a flare up between Russia and Georgia, Armenia will suffer a serious economic blow, since most of Armenia’s trade passes through Georgia.

Armenia itself is engaged in an economic revolution after the Velvet Revolution. The US has pledged generous assistance. It remains up to the new government to make good on its promises and benefit fully from US support and develop its own economic infrastructure.

Azerbaijan is restless because the status quo is not in its favor. Nor is the passage of time helping it.

Unless a popular revolution, like the ones that hit Armenia and Georgia, takes care of Aliyev’s authoritarian regime, Azerbaijan will continue its bellicose posture and threats.