The Karabakh war is behind us but a formal peace is certainly not. While Armenia is waiting for its POWs from Azerbaijan and is burying its dead, the situation in and around the country continues to remain unsettled. Azerbaijan has taken over all the territories prescribed by the November 9 declaration, but the demarcation and delineation process is still in progress. Competing maps are in play and the losses of border villages are always from Armenian territory.
The impact of the war is so devastating that it has thrown people and government agencies which can barely keep up, let alone control the situation, into chaos.
Before domestic peace is restored, Armenia may lose even more territory and suffer further diplomatic defeats.
The challenge facing Armenia is not confined to the loss of Karabakh and large number of casualties; it is its accommodation to and survival in the new geostrategic configuration that has been created as a consequence of the war.
Turkey’s presence and influence has grown exponentially in the region and Armenia has to deal with the unrepentant perpetrator of genocide at its door.
As if Turkeys’ military presence in Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan were not enough, Ankara has more ambitious plans in the region and beyond. All these plans impact directly or indirectly, Armenia’s fate. Those plans may develop in three different directions: