From Panik to Panic

As if that were not enough, the members of the delegation visited Lele Tepe, the piece of strategic territory which Azerbaijan took from Armenian forces during the surprise attack of April 2016.

One of the participants of the forum was a fanatical nationalist, Alexander Dugin, who gave an extensive interview to the First News outlet (Arachin Lratvakan) where he made revealing statements on Moscow’s anger over Armenia’s recent moves. He stated that Serzh Sargsyan had almost agreed to return to Azerbaijan five out of the seven regions under Armenian control and following the Velvet Revolution, that understanding does not seem to be valid any longer, adding, “Azerbaijan’s importance to Russia has been enhanced recently, and also Russian-Turkish relations have taken a positive turn.”

When asked why he visited the territory occupied recently by Azerbaijan from Armenia, Dugin answered that he considers Lele Tepe part of Azerbaijan and as a matter of fact, all of Karabakh is considered part of Azerbaijan by Moscow. He further encouraged the Armenian side to cede peacefully the five regions seized to Azerbaijan, which in return would yield some economic advantages, along with Baku’s good offices to improve relations between Armenia and Turkey and help lift the blockade.

Whatever Armenia agrees to give in terms of territory can only be taken by bloodshed and whatever the Turkish-Azeri side is willing to offer is easily reversible.

In fairness, Russian concerns are there for a reason. Armenia is not only giving subtle signals about its foreign policy shift, but some analysts close to Pashinyan’s administration have also been verbalizing that policy shift to make it audible to Moscow.

For instance, an analyst, Garnik Gevorgyan, writing in the First News outlet, made the following statement: “Russians understand that as a result of the Velvet Revolution, Armenia will move out of the Russian zone of influence gradually, not abruptly. …. And then there will come a time when Armenia will question the existence of Russian military presence on its soil, or at least will renegotiate the terms of stationing its forces there.”

Anticipating those developments, Moscow has signaled that a similar move will cost Armenia a painful outcome in dealing with the Karabakh conflict.

At this time, Moscow’s intention is to move the stalemate and implement the plan for Karabakh devised by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Unlike the Madrid formula, the Lavrov plan foresees the return of five regions to Azerbaijan and as a security guarantee, station peace keeping forces between two opposing forces and those forces will come from the Eurasian Union or CSTO, extending Russian military presence along the Iran in border.

As we can see, Armenia is caught in between the power play of world politics; the West, by enticing Armenia to its side intends to curtail Russian presence in the region, while Russia, using the Karabakh card, tries to even expand its influence in the Caucasus.

Armenians are excited that Europe and the West will enhance democratic rule and offer higher stands of living. The system in Russia and its immediate allies are fraught with incurable corruption. As long as Armenia remains captive in that zone of influence, democracy may not take root.

But on the other hand, Armenia’s place in the European or Western political system cannot be any better than the status of Greece in the NATO structure, where Greece is always the underdog, whenever European powers need to choose between the interests of Athens or Ankara.

Armenia’s road towards Europe is not covered with roses. Russia will not help Armenia in solving the Karabakh conflict but it will not also allow Armenia to move towards the West freely, compromising its military assets in the Caucasus.

The impending crisis began with military exercises in Panik but as we can see, it is growing into a panic of global magnitude.