A Reluctant Revolution Dawns over Armenia

Pashinyan replied that his goal is to end all hatreds in Armenia and then thanked all the parties who voted for him to become the new prime minister. He was subdued and humbled and did not demonstrate his characteristic exuberance.

Now the political games begin. The constitution allows only 15 days for the new prime minister to form his government and submit it to the president for his approval. If the new cabinet is not approved, there will be a second chance. If again it is not approved, then the parliament must be dissolved.

In his acceptance speech, Pashinyan alluded to holding a snap election after a “reasonable span of time.”

Given Armenia’s current political atmosphere, Pashinyan can win by a landslide. However, time is against him. At this point, Pashinyan’s cabinet will serve as a minority government. The purse strings are still in the hands of the Republican Party which has 55 members in the parliament. Gagik Tsarukyan’s Prosperous Armenia Party, which voted in Pashinyan’s favor, holds sway over 31 candidates. The ARF (Dashnaktsutyun) has seven members. It was part of the coalition government but defected to Pashinyan’s camp when victory seemed imminent for the “Velvet Revolution.” The new prime minister will certainly evaluate the political value of that mid-stream defection.

Elections at this time favor only Pashinyan’s bloc, called Yelk, which has only nine votes in the parliament. The Republican Party will lose miserably after the central election committee is reformed and depoliticized.

The ARF members in the parliament were a gift courtesy of the Republican Party, which cannot be repeated in fair elections.

With Pashinyan’s victory, the revolution now begins rather than ends. The challenges lie ahead. The existing problems will not disappear overnight but he has won huge capital in the form of national unity. In those conditions of political adulation, he can pass through any reform.

Among the problems facing the country, the following must be highlighted:

• The national debt ceiling, which stands at $7.5 billion.
• Reform of the economy, which has direct bearing on emigration and the fair distribution of wealth. The latter will lead to bringing into the realm of the law the illegal amassing of wealth, which will impact the oligarch caste. Ironically, some major oligarchs were in Pashinyan’s camp and yet touching their wealth will pose a serious dilemma.
• Dealing with the diaspora. The first question is whether the Ministry of Diaspora will remain. Will all her enthusiasm, former Diaspora Minister Hranush Hakobyan dealt mostly with organized communities in the diaspora, soliciting accolades and dispensing medals. Relations with the diaspora need a more studied approach. A state has to resurrect and reinvigorate its overseas potential. Except for some personal initiatives, nothing was done on a higher level to, for example, awaken dormant Armenians in Turkey. Armenian schools in Javakhk are suffering from a shortage of teachers and textbooks and only lip service has been paid to help them so far.

A major community of 3-4 million remains disorganized in Russia. An extraordinary situation has been created in the breakaway region of Abkhazia, today an unrecognized republic. In fact, there are more ethnic Armenians in Abkhazia (30 percent) than ethnic Abkhaz people, but the country is ruled by the latter.

Pashinyan’s knowledge of the greater diaspora has proven to be no better. His speeches and comments demonstrate that what he considers to be the diaspora is mostly Glendale, with its large expat population.

Foreign policy is another challenge which needs immediate attention. President Vladimir Putin’s early congratulatory message and Pashinyan’s reassuring statements regarding Armenian-Russian relations are not sufficient and need more concrete actions. Russian news outlets are not comfortable with this takeover and certainly discontent is also simmering on the establishment level domestically.

Now that Pashinyan has successfully crafted the Velvet Revolution, he needs that revolution in his internal life.

In today’s euphoric mood, anything less than a standing ovation for him is considered sacrilege. But, the truth has to be told if the revolution can maintain its arc. Under the slogans of love and respect, there is a rampant hatred towards any detractor. Social media is flooded with observances and below-the belt retorts and innuendos. If that current does not stop immediately, it will certainly boomerang and hurt the revolutionaries. The tone of this current was set by Pashinyan himself, who was once Levon Ter-Petrosian’s lieutenant. His performance as the editor of Haykakan Zhamanak was less than stellar. If he does not wish to be on the receiving end of this trend, speedy action is necessary.

Today, Nikol needs to take care of his inner revolution to complete and complement his Velvet Revolution in Armenian society.